I agree with this. My unhooked, non-URM kid had great success with her applications to her reach schools (T20). She only applied RD and EA, since she was chasing merit. We did not hire a college counselor (well, unless you count me). She had no national awards and no community service (she did some limited peer tutoring). She did have high rigor, excellent stats, and research internships, along with extremely strong leadership in her EC’s.
All I can do is speculate on what the tipping factor was for DD. Without seeing her LOR’s and counselor rec, it is impossible for me to guess on how they may have impacted her applications, if at all. I did know enough to advise her to highlight in her application, the facets of her background that told a story that aligned with her prospective college major and ultimate career goal. Having been through the college application process prior with my older child and having done a lot of research here on CC, I felt very confident that I could guide her appropriately.
She had a very carefully thought out application list which included safeties, targets, and reaches. She got in to all of her reach schools (some single digit admits) with the exception of one, with wonderful merit offers from those colleges that offered merit (the exceptions were Johns Hopkins, UMICH, Georgia Tech, and Purdue, where she was offered admission, but no merit–we knew she would not likely get merit from these four schools, so we were not surprised).
The one head-scratcher for us was that although she got in to Lehigh and her stats put her in the top tier of its applicant pool, she was not offered any merit. She showed a TON of very sincere interest in Lehigh, including two visits, an interview, checking her portal very frequently, asking her AO meaningful questions, attending a college visit at her high school, etc. As a high stat female pursuing engineering, with a genuine desire to attend, she was hopeful that she would get some money from Lehigh as it was one of her three top choices and she would have happily attended had they offered her money. My only conclusion from this was that my DD did not have whatever “extra” Lehigh was seeking at the time that would have yielded her merit. Maybe her “Why Lehigh” essay was not strong enough? Who knows.
I have read lots of comments over the years here on CC where posters opine that an applicant needs to apply ED, or needs lots of community service, or needs a hook or whatever, in order to have a meaningful chance at gaining admission and/or to receive merit at the schools at which my kid was offered admission. I think that people try to make sense of why their kid was wait listed or rejected and make assumptions as to why it happened based on whatever they think their kid’s application may have lacked. However, when dealing with holistic admissions, I do not see how any of us can know for certain why our kids was or was not admitted.
The point is that there will always be outliers to the general predictions and not every comment you read here is accurate, including those from more prolific posters. There is a treasure trove of information here on CC and it is a fantastic resource, one that DD has benefitted from for sure. Having said that, none of us can know exactly why an applicant was admitted or denied, without hearing the reasons first hand from the AO. We can only speculate based on our own experience.
So, I don’t look at it as “CC got it wrong”. I look at it for what it is. CC consists of people who give their opinions, some based on fact and some based on speculation, or a combo of the two. I read the advice but made my own decisions based upon my gut and what I thought was best for my kid.