Saw an interesting interview on CNBC this morning with a Bay Area VC woman (forget her name but a fairly regular contributor). They asked her a similar question about companies, jobs, etc being permanently effected. I agree with her answer as it makes sense. She essentially said jobs, companies, industries that were already being disrupted (i.e.retail) will experience acceleration to the disruption. (people will get used to shopping online and continue after covid 19 as that will be the new habit). But as far as other things, she assumes a return to normal, perhaps with additional tech resources for efficiency. She specifically said we will go back to hugging and teaching in school settings and meeting up with friends at bars because we’re humans.
No one knows for sure, but that makes sense to me.
On line health services will increase. Services like Teledoc will be a lot more popular. Beats a walk-in clinic–I don’t need more germs than I’ve already got for simple maladies. I used it last year and got what I needed without leaving my house and in a more timely manner than a walk in clinic. Save emergency rooms for emergencies.
I predict less business travel and more videoconferencing than before this hit, the technology is now good enough - wouldn’t have said the same thing even a few years ago. And I agree with @gouf78 , telemedicine will continue to increase. My RN daughter is spending about half her work time “seeing” patients this way.
I agree with the comments above about the business workplace itself. I believe more people will work from home and that less office space will be needed by many companies. I also think that videoconferencing will replace expensive business travel.
Assuming that we will be back to “normal” after 18 months max, I’m unconvinced that videoconferencing will replace business travel. That’s been tried before, and it never really work out because face to face always seems to work better. Employers may be more open to working from home, but for many (esp in tech) that’s been the case for many years. After all, were human, and we need/expect human contact.
Have been doing video conferencing for years and in many situations. Training people in multiple locations, checking in with clients, and most recently initiating first client meeting (which is tricky but better than a phone call). What I’ve noticed is there are certain activities that are fine delivered this way. If you’re doing more than your typical zoom and are sharing your screen, using presentation tools, etc, it takes really good knowledge and skill to keep meeting moving at the rhythm you desire.
That can all be practiced. Going forward, many will be more open to a teleconference but nothing replaces the belly to belly relationships built over dinner, drinks, golf, or office.
However, if even a portion of travel meetings and conferences gets replaced by videoconferencing, that could mean a permanent reduction in business for hotels and restaurants, particularly those that cater to business travelers. Reduced volume as well as less of the volume being business travelers spending their employers’ money (versus their own money that they are likely to be tighter-fisted with) will put downward pressure on prices for hotels and restaurants.
I agree that it is better to meet in person for some things, but my H works for a huge European company that has let travel costs skyrocket over the past few years because so many meetings had to be in person. The company is now really struggling with a loss of business and my H says when we come out of all of this he believes they will seriously cut all travel.
Every year, as far as i could remember, we always encourage people not to travel due to budget restriction. So that’s already happening, not due to the virus but the desire to keep cost down.
But there are always justifications for travel. For example, because i have a global team from 8 different countries, I would like to get everyone together at least once a year, I don’t see that changing.
For most of my projects, the initial phase almost always required F2F workshop to understand business requirement, gap-fit analysis. Those type of workshops will not go away. We are not going to spend millions of $$ to start a project without thorough analysis up front. We have a few on hold but as soon as things open up, we will have to travel. I don’t see this type of work going away any time soon.
I think that in the future, financial pressure will reduce the amount of travel, not the fear of the virus (Just like Before Covid)
The trades, of course. We will always need people who can build and fix things.
Health care.
Brewing. My husband is a brewer and although his business has scaled back due to having to close the taproom, the demand from customers is still very high. He delivers and does takeout when possible. I guess people will always love beer. Yes, we’re familiar with the shrinking craft beer market, but people who don’t make trendy beers are more likely to survive than those who went all in with the sours, goses, etc., and didn’t make any traditional ales or lagers.
I imagine the wine industry is similar, although it is much harder to make decent wine than beer.
Journalism. Not a high paying job and some print publications are folding, but there will always be paid work for decent writers and reporters. My son writes for a niche publication and hasn’t been furloughed yet, which surprises me. I could be wrong, but think his magazine is the cash cow for the whole company.
Along the same lines, people who are good at managing online content for businesses. We’re all shopping online more, and while this will drop after the pandemic is over and people can walk into actual brick and mortar stores, no one will forget the usefulness of buying and selling online, and those who market themselves well will come out ahead.
Midwifery. People will always be having babies, and some will opt to have a midwife, whether at home or in hospital.
Therapists. I’ll bet they’re making bank now, but even when this threat passes, they will still be needed.
I honestly don’t think anything’s going to change nor is it going to influence what people do. I think it’s going to be seen as too much of an anomaly to have serious, long-lasting career affecting implications.
However, I think that there WILL be changes in how the workforce operates. We’ve been told too many times that we can’t work remotely but this has proven that that is absolute bunk for many jobs. I think you’ll see a renewed push for PTO at a federal level. Basically, maybe we’ll take a baby step towards what the rest of the wealthy world already takes for granted.
I’ll be going on the job market in a year or so with a PhD & MPH, with a strong background in public health as well as strong quant and qual skills, and I still don’t think I’ll find any PH careers worth pursuing. There’s just too little money in most of the careers and too much funding is dependent on the whims of the government. It’s one of the reasons I chose to pursue the PhD rather than taking any of the jobs I considered after my MPH. Honestly, the PhD funding was more than most of the MPH jobs I was offered.
@Massmomm Therapists “making bank”? Actually, most of us have seen a decline in income over several years of changes in insurance reimbursement, and shelter-at-home mandates have further reduce caseloads. However, we are getting more skilled in teletherapy, which may expand some options for income.
No it’s actually in american culture. I work on history of medicine (broadly) and continue to work in public health. I’ve decided against a tenure track career so I work on a lot of projects that are more related to public health and continue to present my work at places like APHA.
@NorCalTootsie I was thinking of several news reports about a significant uptick in the number of people seeking mental health care as a direct result of their Covid-related anxiety and isolation. I guess this doesn’t always translate to more income for people providing mental health services. Prior to that, I knew that therapists’ incomes were sharply curtailed by poor insurance reimbursement. My kids’ providers stopped taking insurance altogether, which meant we had to pay $$$ out of pocket, but I can’t imagine most families doing that for very long.
I wonder about the academic conference market. Usually I go to 3 or 4 meetings a year with intercontinental travel. Two cancelled on me so far this year. October in Canada is supposed to go ahead, who knows how many people will turn up. In future my motivation for such travel may diminish. Although I’d hate to be less than a gold card flier…
Wondering how mass transit will changes well as office space. We have no light rail. Only bus service (and ride shares). However, as people go back to work, while maintaining social distance, we’ll need to stagger shifts. More working at home as well. This could potentially ease the dreaded rush hour. But it might also spread out bus schedules over the day rather than lumped during rush hour, and scarce in-between. Something as simple as riding the elevator to offices will need to be spaced as well, further indicating need for staggered shifts.