Hmm, your stats are possibly reasonable. As you might know, each school can determine its own Naviance settings - so at my D’s school only the previous 4 graduating classes’ information appears in that section. I wonder if BC is like many other schools that have become significantly more selective in the past 5 years, making the full 2006-2015 average less reliable than if the average were for just the most recent few years’ applicatnts?
Not trying to kill your dream - just want you to think through all the scenarios so you can make the most informed decision. In the end, you may always second guess yourself. Sometimes in life there is no “right” answer other than giving the question at hand careful thought.