Agreed that the OP’s list needs more non-reaches. But I do think it’s being quite conservative to say it’s a “toss-up” for a kid with a 3.99/1540 and good rigor to be a toss-up at schools with 35-45% acceptance rates.
While I wouldn’t term those schools “safety,” acceptance chances would be far greater than toss-up. The median applicant has a toss-up chance of admission at those schools, but looking at Naviance for my own mid-sized high school, those 3 schools have never rejected anyone with over a 3.9/1500 (like 2 wait lists and 30 acceptances). I still wouldn’t call those safeties in today’s environment, but the chances at all those schools are far better than “toss up”
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