I don’t really disagree with that. But there is a huge chasm between “shoo in” and “toss up.” Being in the 90-95th percentile of applicants statistically/rigor should give a very healthy boost to acceptance chances. Yes, such a person can still get rejected, especially if they don’t take the process seriously (blow off the essays, fail to demonstrate interest, etc).
GWU’s admission rate this year is actually being reported at 49%..
So with a 49% admission rate, a student in the 95-99th percentile of applicants should be well above that rate.
But I don’t dramatically disagree with you. Yes, still not a shoo in.