I agree there is some luck involved, but If you do your research up front and apply to colleges where your talents and/or demographic are coveted, but in short supply, and are then accepted, is that dumb luck? I don’t think so.
On the other hand, if you have a herd mentality and apply exclusively to the highest ranked schools in your particular field of interest (for example: Princeton for International Relations or CMU for computer science) you shouldn’t be too surprised in April when you’re rejected because there were just way too many applicants like you for too few spots.