They may have chosen a better candidate in their eyes, but it’s still a rejection on my end lol. And right after I recieve a decision, I’m certainly not like they didn’t reject me!! they just chose someone else better than me. It just reinforces I wasn’t good enough tbh
Like I said, it’s an unpredictable process. But why do you classify schools as reach, target and safety? Because you have the stats and ECs and such of candidates who typically get into that pool. I think it’s ok to assume that you have a very high chance of getting into your safeties and targets. Yes you can get rejected, but you theoretically should have a higher chance of getting in giving the student profile of the school. When you don’t, you wonder what you did wrong.