Sadly NASA has had many cutbacks in their projects, which probably left the private sector ( Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin and Elon Musk’s SpaceX) ripe for opportunities. And loans are loans- not grants. And with Elon’s latest personal and Tesla SEC fines, he has some bills to pay! Do4s google still have the Xprize contest?
“Being born in a time and place where that sort of wealth is even possible is luck”
This is the point about Musk, just like Gates and Jobs, and it’s not about now vs medieval Europe. If he’d tried to make PayPal or Tesla 10 or perhaps even 5 years earlier, then he would have failed, because the technology wasn’t there. SpaceX is a slightly different case (the technology is mostly from the 60s) but was also fortunate in timing because the US government was looking for Space Shuttle replacement options and was prepared to fund them. Again, 5 or 10 years earlier that wouldn’t have happened.
Sure you need the drive and ambition to do it and only 1 person in a million might have that. But if the timing for the technology, funding and market isn’t right they will fail. That’s the importance of luck.
I’ll be laughing about this all day! Thank you, @doschicos , I needed that 
Agree that bing in the right place at the right time has a reasonable component of luck. And having a good sense of the market. There was a big “work here, shop here, live here, play here” complex in my area that was ahead of its time and didn’t do as well as hoped. Then there was another that seemed to be a better timed project… but then the housing/market crash happened. and IIRC there were some early online/tablet book ventures that didn’t make it b/c people weren’t ready to accept reading books without holding them in their hands.
Many start-ups are great ideas but don’t have the funding (maybe thats what led to the success of shark tank?). Many variables lead to success/failure of that “lucky break”.
Saying accumulation of wealth is almost 100% luck is absurd and seems to be purposely dismissive of the concept of free will and the human ability to set and achieve goals, no matter their background . “Luck” (sometimes defined as when preparation meets opportunity) almost certainly plays a part in most (or even all) positive outcomes that happen over time. But it completely discounts any notion that individuals can overcome less than stellar conditions. It discounts the efforts of people who have a strong worth ethic and are ambitious, entrepreneurial, creative, innovative, determined, etc.
I think of DH. He was always a worker, even when he was little. He collected cans as a very young child. He had a paper route very early, used those savings to buy chicks and raise them to sell eggs, worked in a gas station before he could drive, always had a job and never laid around during summer vacations. As an adult, he went 3 years without a salary during a downturn, yet got up every day with a positive attitude, determined to turn things around. He would drive hundreds of miles a day, searching for the “right” deal. He stayed up every night until 1 or 2 in the morning researching, pondering, running numbers to find a good opportunity for a client. He had a tenacity in the face of almost daily rejection that I (and most people) don’t possess. Most people would have given up, but he never did. He had the “luck” to be born in a country where there is opportunity for those who are both able and willing to go after it; while not born of privilege per se, he is a white male, which carries its own advantages. Luck definitely played a part. Saying he got where is today only due to luck or only due to being in the right place at the right time completely discounts personal initiative and free will; it is complete nonsense. Saying the “Millionaire Next Door” amasses wealth at a greater level than other similarly situated people not because of his frugality, his determination to live below his means, his rejection of over consumption, but only because he was “lucky” to be born with that kind of disposition is a statement designed to rob him of any credit for his achievements.
This same discrediting language could be applied to anyone who achieves personal goals that have nothing to do with wealth. Many people purposely choose careers that have a low financial ceiling; nevertheless success in those fields still require the same qualities I described above with respect to work ethic and other character traits. Attributing personal achievement only to luck attempts to minimize the importance of free will and initiative. It attempts to demean effort and self determination.
I thought I read somewhere that the most popular vehicle driven by millionaires was a Ford F150
I read that statistic in The Millionaire Next Door, and he had a source for it, but I don’t know which source he used since I listened to the audio book rather than reading it in print.
That comment by Mr. Money Mustache seems relevant to this thread. And he answers the thread’s question with this comment:
@Nrdsb4, your post #684, best post EVER!
Hope this is ok to post (reliable blog from the late Tom Stanley) http://www.thomasjstanley.com/2011/12/ford-pickup-1-vehicle-in-sales-profits/
There are some circumstances in life that are not possible to overcome if too many odds are stacked against you. That said, there do seem to be some “super humans” who rise from the most dismal lots imaginable. Recognizing that is not an indictment of those who don’t do so.
Luck follows the prepared mind.
https://www.wired.com/story/why-amazon-really-raised-minimum-wage/ indicates that it may just be plain old labor market economics – the economy has finally gotten to the point that labor is no longer in as plentiful supply as it was, so employers have to offer higher pay to attract and retain employees.
However, the fact that labor (i.e. that which provides the income for the vast majority of income earners in the US) has only been able to join the party this late during this long period of economic growth is not a good sign for the future. Labor may be starting to get a significant share of the growth just as the growth period is likely to end, while labor tends to get hurt early in downturns. Capital also gets hurt in downturns, but recovered much more quickly and to a greater extent in this growth period.
These economic trends suggest a future trend toward greater inequality and lower mobility.
Remember that that book was published in the 1990s, so vehicle preferences generally and among millionaires may be different now. The Ford pickups led sales then and now, but that includes both fleet sales and personal/retail sales. But pickups bought for personal/retail use these days are much more likely to be luxuriously appointed crew cab models, rather than regular cab work truck models like in the past. The millionaires next door may or may not be following similar trends.
Some luck occurs before you can prepare your mind. For example, being born into a poor or rich family. Even at the same income and wealth level, some families are well functioning and supportive, while others are dysfunctional (e.g. nasty divorce followed by continuing fights).
Of course, luck is not the only factor determining how successful you are in life (financially or otherwise). Your choices, abilities, and motivation certainly matter in whether you can make use of good luck, or have the possibility of overcoming bad luck.
The fact that parents with money do so much to try to give their kids the best luck (from the kids’ point of view) possible (e.g. enrolling them in the best schools possible, paying for activities to develop top-end skills in chosen extracurriculars, etc.) rather than let them grow up with more ordinary levels of luck (e.g. enrolling them in average public schools, letting them do ordinary activities like playing pickup basketball after school) suggests an implicit belief that luck matters, even among those who claim otherwise.
Buy-and-hold can be much more successful. No market timing really needed.
You’re quoting the wrong person. I most definitely did not write that…I read it in print, not audio.
Re: the Millionaire Next Door, a few things stand out to me: a) divorce is the #1 wealth killer; and b) these “frugal millionaires” hired expensive/smart lawyers and accountants to help them keep their wealth (i.e. they used the system to their advantage).
Thank you Nrdsb4 #684 for your post. Couldn’t agree more. Reminds me of dh who is hard worker and has been saving significant % of income each paycheck for decades. We are not in top 1% but fall approx 3% … Never made more than 150,000 and I was able to be SAHM after birth of second child at 38. We pay cash for nice cars and keep them 10 + years and paid off house by age 55. We don’t count our house as an asset in our portfolio. Given our blue collar upbringing we wanted to ensure our kids worked hard and experienced delayed gratification experiences. We never qualified for financial assistance for college due to our savings, so both kids applied to multiple merit scholarships. First daughter financed 95% education at local university through scholarships and has fabulous job making more than Dh. Youngest went to local CC because unsure of major and knew his 529 budget would not pay for 4 full years. Transferred to LAC with merit scholarship bringing cost down to less than state Flagship. Able to graduate 1 semester early and below budget. Tells me best thing to happen going to CC and transfer to LAC as says many privileged kids at LAC have no concept how lower income folks think/live. Sees lessons learned with both experiences equally valuable. Luck? Surely some. Did we suffer being somewhat frugal? No. We have LTC insurance so that our kids will not have to worry about us as we age. Did being a SAHM limit us? Maybe. But being able to spend time with kids, help them and their friends with scholarships, take care of our parents as they aged and passed away makes me feel like very rich woman. We have a lovely home that we’ve had our entire marriage and we were able to remodel kitchen and bathrooms before Dh is to retire this year. So guess I’m saying is that it is possible to be “rich” and “happy” doing without some of the many luxuries some feel they need. We are blessed.