A topic for a different thread then - was primarily curious the relevance of the statement related to this thread.
well, it’s not popular in California. My son is the only one in his entire high school class who applied (at least according to Naviance). When he tells people he applied there they seem shocked.
Article is kind of alarmist in its tone. I would not consider a 15% drop - which if you look at the data is a 15% trend down over ~15 years as a “cliff”. At the same time we have higher application rates into colleges (kids that 10 years ago didn’t apply are doing so today). Not suggesting there might not be a shaking out of some colleges that were on the edge but the stories statement of “Many colleges won’t survive the fall.” I’m simply not buying. Time will tell though.
The idea that Auburn or any university is casting a wider net to create more brand awareness and possibly get kids from new markets to apply to them is simply good marketing regardless of the timing. That’s part of the drive to have a successful athletics program.
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I work in higher education, and we have been talking and preparing for this for the last few years. It is always a topic of conversation at academic conferences - what are schools doing in the face of a drop in 18-year-olds and rising tuition/costs? There are a number of smaller colleges in the NE that have already merged with other schools, and a few more that I am aware of are on the horizon. The big schools will be fine, and not everyone will be impacted at the same level. However, it is a concern for admissions and enrollment management. The Penn State system was originally composed of 14 institutions but, since 2021, has been working to consolidate to 6 with concerns over rising costs and potential lower enrollment. Many smaller schools need to broaden their geographic reach to remain viable - particularly if they have to give out a lot of $ to attract students. Those institutions that have a large percentage of full pays will not impacted as much. Families are also more sensitive to COA and seeking out schools that offer “better value for money”. Auburn is potentially one of those schools - good and growing reputation, good outcomes, depth and breadth of programs, athletics, environment, and decent COA compared to some competitor schools.
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Completely agree with everything you wrote - which was a MUCH more reasonable tone than “Looming Enrollment Cliff”
“Dangerous precipice looms on the horizon… Many colleges won’t survive the fall”
“By 2030, our nation will have far fewer colleges than it does now”
I suppose it all depends on how one defines “Many” and “far fewer”.
Any company that deals with specific demographics adjusts its strategy as those demographics change. I’m not sticking my head in the sand on the topic. My main disagreement was the tone of the article making it sound like within 10 years 1/3 of colleges will fold.
None of it really matters. I work in an industry that is heavily STEM, primarily engineering. Almost no one cares about or asks where you went to school. We have engineers from GT, MIT, Stanford, along side folks from Auburn and CU and even Kennesaw State. Work ethic and results are what matters
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Here is some news 
Auburn released. Over 50,000 applications for fall 2024 have been received. The school is tremendously popular right now and on fire 
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That’s the notice from last year - 48K applicants - which represented a 5% increase from the year before. Sounds like they might have seen a further ~10% (?) increase. Any increase is good for the school and potentially bad for applicants… but not sure how much I would say on fire. Not a knock on AU AT ALL - but those increases are pretty common across the board as kids apply to a higher number of schools each admission cycle.
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I found this article from the Auburn website today that says there is a 15% increase in applications (fall 2024) up to mid November from the previous year. See 
That’s as of mid-November when they’re mid-application cycle(s). Kids are applying earlier and earlier every year - especially at a school like Auburn where it’s believed that earlier application dates have higher acceptance rates.
My calculations were based on your post above it that stated “50,000 applications”
We can wait until the full application cycle is complete and CDS is reported (a year + from now). CDS applicant count for students '22-'23 was 45,693. Their communication from last year was 48K.
I’m not being “Down” on Auburn - just the opposite, I think it’s a great school with a lot going for it. I just think it’s over-stating things to suggest it’s somehow way more popular now than it was a year or two ago.
I agree. This is good news, But more and more kids are applying EA, which shifts the number of applications up to earlier in the cycle. We won’t really know if the overall application pool is up by 15%, more than that or less until the cycle is over. Most schools I have been tracking have been reporting a higher EA pool than last year.
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Not referring to a year or two ago. Five years ago the admissions rate was 80% and Auburn has long been considered an easy target/safety. Same with USC, UTK.
Fall of 2020 AU started accepting Common App which drove applications up considerably (and therefore acceptance rates down).
UTK’s current popularity is - likely - mostly driven from the notoriety and success of the football program. Applications the last 2-3 years are up substantially.
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something else happened in 2020. Most of the country outside of the south when insane and treated college students like prisoners rather than paying customers.
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A consideration for sure! But the data does not prove that out. A couple of northern school application counts below. Those were the first 5 I thought to check and didn’t see the need to go beyond those. If you want to add in some west coast schools (based on your name I assume that’s where you are) maybe it shows something different. Applications are up across the board.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umass | 42,157 | 40,315 | 42,540 | 45,451 |
| Uconn | 35,096 | 34,437 | 36,753 | 40,894 |
| Northeastern | 62,263 | 64,459 | 75,244 | 91,000 |
| Penn State | N/A | 73,861 | 78,508 | 85,478 |
| University Delaware | 26,500 | 33,505 | 33,965 | 35,228 |
From a Higher Ed story March of last year (related to Common App):
- Total application volume through March 1 rose 30 percent from 2019–20 (5,434,484) to 2022–23 (7,057,980). Applicants were also applying to more members in 2022–23 than in 2019–20 (up 8 percent, from 5.3 to 5.7 applications per applicant).
Some of that application volume is up because more schools joined the common app program over that time (Auburn, University of Texas, Texas A&M being large notable ones) but the 8% increase in kids applying to more schools is huge deal.
On a more personal note - I’m in the northeast and through the interactions I had with parents of my sons peers (S23), I never - not once - heard a parent say “I’m encouraging my kid to go to a southern school because of how they handled COVID”. YMMV
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Penn State didn’t have mandates and was very popular at the time because of it.
Interesting. These are all anecdotes for sure, but I know for a fact of 6 families that sent their kids to southern universities from New England due to the insane pandemic response.
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Auburn certainly required masks and encouraged vaccines in many if not all of the engineering labs as my son was a grad research assistant in the middle of all of this. They did shut down the lab and had WFH for a few weeks when there was an outbreak. Almost everyone in the labs wore masks without issues and most had the vaccine after that initial shutdown…he said it really wasn’t as big a deal as people made of it, mainly parents - kids just wanted to get their work done.
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I’ve got to say I can understand why. I’ve only visited once and everything was awesome. Beautiful school. Great weekend. I would definitely transfer there if I could.
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well, we’re one family doing that. Being in school in CA during that time was a nightmare. And I know others doing the same. It’s not just southern schools - it’s any school or state that was more sensible. But I agree that factors are likely numerous and complicated and not all people make decisions based on the same criteria.
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