<p>JHS actually describes an economic environment (cheap debt, good investment performance) that applies to all the top schools (UChicago’s endowment performance wasn’t that much better than any of its peers). Yet, UChicago was really the only school that spent so heavily during the great recession. Many schools stalled or delayed development plans. </p>
<p>Now, as JHS also mentioned, fundraising will become key over the next 5-7 years. I’m not overly optimistic about UChicago’s fundraising prowess, if past history is any guide. It’s last campaign was slated to run for five years and raise $2B: <a href=“U. of C. raises $2.8 billion, ends campaign”>U. of C. raises $2.8 billion, ends campaign; . In practice, the campaign went for nine (!) years, and raised $2.38B. This past track record doesn’t inspire confidence. </p>
<p>Currently, a few schools have either finished or are in the midst of capital campaigns (none of which lasted or will last nearly a decade), and here are some results:</p>
<p>Stanford raised $6.2 billion in five (five!) years: <a href=“Stanford Raises $6.2-Billion, a Record for Higher Education”>http://chronicle.com/article/Stanford-Raises-62-Billion/130698/</a></p>
<p>Columbia $6.1 billion in eight years: <a href=“http://www.columbiaspectator.com/news/2014/01/30/columbia-sets-ivy-record-raises-over-61-billion-capital-campaign”>http://www.columbiaspectator.com/news/2014/01/30/columbia-sets-ivy-record-raises-over-61-billion-capital-campaign</a></p>
<p>USC is in the middle of a $6 billion campaign (quite ambitious)</p>
<p>Harvard is in the middle of a $6.5 billion campaign</p>
<p>Duke has flagging performance for a modest $3.25 billion campaign (<a href=“http://www.dukechronicle.com/articles/2013/04/02/most-schools-make-progress-toward-duke-forward-goals”>http://www.dukechronicle.com/articles/2013/04/02/most-schools-make-progress-toward-duke-forward-goals</a>)</p>
<p>Northwestern just announced a $3.75 billion campaign (<a href=“Northwestern Announces $3.75 Billion Campaign - Northwestern Now”>Northwestern Announces $3.75 Billion Campaign - Northwestern Now)</p>
<p>The pressure is really on UChicago now. Given it’s level of debt, and the goals of the administration, a $4-$5B goal would be advisable, but could the university achieve this? It’s peers are raking in gobs of money (Stanford at $6B+, Columbia at $6B, Harvard will probably end it’s campaign in the $7B+ range, even Penn went past their $3.5B goal and ended up with $4.3B recently), and UChicago’s fundraising, hasn’t been great. It raised about $400M last year, which was a stupendous year for the school, and amounts to maybe 4 months of fundraising at Stanford. </p>
<p>The current fundraising environment seems to highlight the disparity between the haves (UChicago, Duke, Penn, Northwestern), and the have-a-lots (Stanford, Harvard, etc.). UChicago wants desperately to be included in the have-a-lots, but is the infrastructure and tradition really there to support such a reach? I’m concerned that UChicago’s fundraising may fall below the level of NU and Penn, and if the school spends the next 6 years to raise, say, $3.5 billion, they’ll be well behind their peers by 2020, and still more highly leveraged than all of them. </p>