The thing about chancing on CC is that kids almost never present the whole picture adcoms will look at. And of course, the posters who respond don’t know how most schools (other than the auto-admitters) weigh various aspects of the app and what makes for impressive. It’s valid to check your scores against matriculated students, but that’s limited, just a portion of the whole. Many, I think, have stars in their eyes (wow could I get into fill-in the-blank?) And they never really learn what Name It Top U is really about (beyond the rep, the supposed future job chances or grad school potential) and looks for.
I agree with “identify schools that are the best fit for the student’s interests and personality within that group.” But you’e also trying to glean where YOU represent what THEY like. You do that by poring over the offerings (academic and other,) what they say about their philosophy and values, seeing what sorts of kids they brag about and what those are involved in (in their depts and outside class.) You find the “what we look for” and/or you figure it out from reading and re-reading the college’s own site. You match yourself, not just think endlessly about “what I want.”
I also agree with taking a few calculated risks. But calculated isn’t the way many approach it- they figure they’ll just throw their hat in the ring, what the heck. For the schools with so many apps, if you haven’t done the homework, if you really don’t know the school, you may be just so much more noise, bogging down the process. Be wise.