@Pizzagirl “If you’re in the ballpark of their admitted class, then the chances are the published admit rate. The end.”
The problem with that is that “in the ballpark” is very vague. To me, your comment seems to encourage student to apply to a lot of top schools that they have basically no chance to get into under the theory that everyone has basically the same chance, based on their assessment that they are “in the ballpark.”
I know that you have a very sophisticated understanding about what “in the ballpark” means, but the average parent or student reading that may have no idea.
@pizzagirl “Don’t remotely kid yourself that you can estimate with any more precision and even if you can,big whoops if it moves you from 10% to 15%.”
PG, I would have been very disappointed if I did not get some bluster from you. lol Actually, doing better than the average is easy if you have a significant sample and enough data to work with and you are willing to do the work.
As far as “big whoops,” I would say that there are a lot of people who will tell a student with average or above average scores that their actual chance of being admitted to a top twenty college is not really the average percentage, but is actually close to zero. In some cases the person telling them that is correct. In other cases, they are completely wrong. That is why I think that, it is important to take a more sophisticated approach when possible.
I think that the acceptance rate is one thing, but the facts are that this is not an admissions lottery. If you can get information about the results of prior candidates from your school, and in addition to gpa and test scores, also consider the specific college or school you are applying to within the University, as well as sex, race, rigor of the candidate’s schedule, and overall strength of the candidates ECs, and quality of their essays, you won’t be able to know whether they will be admitted, but you can do a lot better than the average rate.