Honestly, this is hard to call w/o detailed rigor/course listings and more about your own HS (don’t share that) and your engineering/STEM ECs. My 25 had a similar UW GPA (test optional), was an engineering applicant, though had no overlap with your list. They had really good, relevant ECs, decent but not great rigor for their school, which is quite a good public.
Of those on your list they considered, we had put CU Boulder as a low reach, Embry-Riddle as a likely, SLO as a reach, and Pomona as a likely for them. PSU as a low reach, UW as a reach. They didn’t actually apply to those though.
Some other ideas, RIT, WPI (kid got in with merit to both) have big mech-e, and WPI has pure aero. RIT has relevant courses and clubs for aero. Also admitted to UNH, UVM, URI (all with some merit) for engineering (though not aero/mech-e).