Will I have a ~14.5% chance of getting accepted to Harvard? And other highly-competitive schools.

I was fairly impressed by your entrepreneurial activities and by the ways in which you teach yourself. I think colleges will be too. It is hard to tell if your grades are very high due to less challenging course work, but if you declined IB in order to do things outside of school, college may like that, even Harvard. I write from personal experience. Make sure to write a note explaining that, and have it included with your transcript, or have the counselor write it, either one.

Princeton isn’t too far from NYC or Philadelphia, and the Amherst area is hopping, with 5 colleges there (a consortium so you can take classes at the other 4) and Northampton is a nice little city. I wouldn’t limit yourself but understand your preference.

I would go ahead and apply to elite schools that you can afford, and like anyone, have no expectations. And make sure you have some safeties that are affordable.