Worth it to apply if I can't attend without merit aid, given limited # of schools I can apply to?

@ClassicRockerDad Yes, I am in NYC! And I probably will apply to a SUNY as a safety. I have not heard of the rule at my school not applying after 4/1 though.

As for the algorithm, how would I estimate my probability of acceptance? Would it be the school’s acceptance rate, or is there a more personalized, but still methodical, way of doing that?

Thank you very much for this advice.