There is no reliable mathematical way to estimate your probability of acceptance at schools with holistic admissions. This is particularly true if you are talking about private schools that have big merit aid. The acceptance rate is not your probability of acceptance - that’s a statistical fallacy; your personal probability of acceptance may be higher or lower than the school’s acceptance rate given certain factors. But it’s kind of impossible to tell from the outset; you can only use ballpark guesses based on the school’s typical applicant profile.
It would be great if we could all just plug some numbers in and chug our way to figuring out the mess that is college admissions, but except for the public universities that only use test scores and GPAs in some formula, we really can’t - not easily.