Looking up the thread, @AustenNut’s “Low Probability” category has a range of 20-39%. For CWRU, it does seem like the higher end of this range, 30%-39%ish, may be accurate even for the highest stat applicants. This isn’t a likely school for anyone, because admission is so unpredictable. You can’t just have high stats and do X, Y, Z in order to demonstrate interest. If you look at the CWRU threads, you will see plenty of high stats kids deferred or denied, including kids who did everything right and demonstrated strong genuine interest, saw this as their first choice school and were really surprised not to be admitted. You will also see some high stats kids accepted, along with some medium stat admits like my kid (1460 SAT, which I think is below average for CWRU admits).
It feels like an unpredictable high match / low reach for all of these applicants… although that is just my unscientific feeling. And yes, it’s probably changed a lot since your son was admitted in 2014. Many schools in this selectivity range have a very different admissions profile now.