I have different reach categories. (Well, I’ll just list them all.)
High reach: 0-5% chance
Reach: 5-15%
Low reach: 15-25%
High match: 25-40%
Match: 40-60%
Low match: 60-90%
Safety: 90+%
So your Low Probability straddles my Low Reach/High Match ranges. A rose by any other name…
More important, I would agree. CWRU is probably a Low Reach/High Match for a great many applicants. Like a Tulane or a U Miami, they are heavily into yield protection… so they may actually be more likely to admit the 3.7/1400 kid who shows the love, rather than the 4.0/1550 kid who has 20 apps out and doesn’t really give Case a second thought after applying. Among schools worried about these things, some schools chase the stats primarily… while others chase the yield. Case appears to be among the latter.