We’re also in California and similarly concerned for our S24 (and S27). There has definitely been more students applying to CA public colleges (UCs and CSUs) since both systems went SAT/ACT test free, driving down admission rates.
I also wonder if the increase in the capped 10th & 11th grade GPA for Fall 2022 (HS Class of 2022) and Fall 2023 admission cycles (HS Class of 2023) reflects artificial inflation of some CA high schools modifying grading policy to pass/fail for 2019-2020 and 2020-21 (AB104) school year. If yes, then the GPA ranges could come back down for UCs’ calculation for Fall 2024 (HS Class of 2024). This would not necessarily be true for Cal Poly SLO Fall 2024 average as they use 9th grade courses which were in the 2020-21 (AB104) school year.
Meanwhile, there are some UCs that consider AP exam scores in their holistic admissions review (per @Gumbymom in other posts), but it doesn’t appear that Cal Poly SLO or CSUs do. Private schools may lean more into AP exam scores for the “external assessment” of the inflated grades per
Assessing college readiness for the pandemic generation.
CA community college route is our kiddos’ true safety.