<p>In no way have I contradicted myself. You read in between the lines for something that isn’t in any of my posts - likelihood of matriculation rates in each group of deferred students.</p>
<p>Group 1 is not characterized by a high likelihood of matriculation. It is characterized by students who yale/stanford wants but are not worth blowing up their early stats for. They understand the risks that they take by deferring them and the increased likelihood of them matriculating to another school even after being accepted in the RD round.</p>
<p>I agree, and have already said, that yale/stanford is sensitive to the fact that SCEA is perceived to benefit the privileged and wants to limit the “advantage” of applying early. Because Yale does not actively advertise the legacy SCEA admit/defer/reject rate, there isn’t specific pressure around the SCEA number, but around the overall legacy acceptance rate and % of the matriculated class made up of legacies. You can also ask yourself where that pressure is coming from and does yale/stanford really care. I imagine now that I have more clearly defined Group 1 you understand why legacies do not logically flow into group 1. Whether none, half, or all of admitted legacy applicants you know were accepted after being deferred says nothing about whether they were in Group 1 or Group 2, only that they were not in group 3.</p>