<p>There is definitely no specific ratio. Deferred applicants are really sorted into three groups. </p>
<p>The first is the group of kids who the admissions officers already know will get in RD. For some reason, yale (under brenzel) has taken the stance that the majority of the enrolled class should be from the RD round - even though SCEA is nonbinding. (Yale only takes the SCEA kids who they know they absolutely want and don’t want to lose to other schools. They hope that by giving them their first admission, they will fall more in love with yale and ultimately matriculate.) The only reason these kids are not in the SCEA group is that Yale admissions is not incredibly worried about losing these kids to other schools when they ultimately accept them in the RD round and, for statistical purposes, would rather defer them to make the RD round acceptance rate higher (and SCEA rate lower) and make the RD round seem more open than it actually is. SCEA gets a bad rep for being tilted in favor of the privileged - which it isnt given yale’s fantastic financial aid and the nonbinding nature of SCEA.</p>
<p>The second group is made up of kids where they are interested, but aren’t entirely sure if they should be accepted. They wait and see if they can find a “better version” of the applicant in the RD pool.</p>
<p>The third group is made of of kids who are polite rejects - similar to some students on the waiting list. This is mostly comprised of legacies or statistically capable applicants who fit all the numerical criteria for an accepted student, but don’t have that special quality that makes for an accepted student. Going on a tangent, it is the third group where Stanford and Yale seem to differ in their SCEA policies as yale defers 50% and Stanford defers closer to 15%</p>
<p>To loop back to your original question, it will depend on what group you get sorted into if you apply. Group 1 is better, group 2 is the same, and group 3 is worse.</p>