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<p>That is not what happened in the case of blacks and Hillary. You ought not misrepresent the facts here. Blacks at one time openly supported Hillary and openly rejected Obama. There was no stealth voting where blacks were concerned. They were right on the level about their doubts concerning whether Obama considered himself black. It was so entrenched that Hillary took it for granted. Obama pressed blacks hard, and convinced many that he understood them. Even then blacks backed Hillary by large majorities. It was when Hillary failed to campaign in Iowa because she did not think it possible that whites would vote for a black, and then began throwing trash when she recognized her mistake, that she began to lose blacks. Nothing like this happened with whites. Many whites, on the other hand, polled in favor of a black candidate, but were simply not on the level. They were, in short, lying outright. When the they got behind the curtain, they broke hard for the white guy. Two extremely different circumstances.</p>
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<p>That is not my assertion and never has been. I think half of whites hate blacks to such an extent that they cannot help but discriminate against them regardless of what blacks do. But some of those whites, perhaps 30%± of them will vote for a black guy, provided he jump through the same sort of ridiculous hoops that Jindal jumps through. Jindal exploited the religious nut hoop, and those sorts of whites went for him. That is a specific niche that would not work generally. It would not work in places like Georgia and Alabama. The people in those states are not significantly Roman Catholic nuts. They are Baptist/Evangelical nuts, an entirely different sort of hypocrisy is at work in them. Keyes tried to find a niche with them, but with only measured success. In places like Illinois, guys like Keyes don’t even rate and can never rate. Still, if a general model can be found (and perhaps Obama has found it), I think only 30% of voting whites will generally vote for a black.</p>
<p>The problem is that of those 30%, precious few are willing to be fair-minded about the black guy’s challenges. The black guy will have to be an uncommonly gifted leader to keep their support. Too many of them would look for and take the opportunity to slam him, even racially, should he make the slightest mistake. They would turn on a dime against the black, doing essentially the same thing to his administration that they do in polls, namely, saying one thing publicly, but condemning him racially wherever it really counts. They are willing to vote for him, but not to stand by him as they stood by Reagan through all his total nonsense. They will not stand by the black guy even as they do for Bush during all his extreme nonsense. No one is hitting Bush racially for his failures. They would hit Obama, racially, and for the least misstep. This means they would hit every black guy to come afterward. As they have already proven Obama doesn’t even need to make a mistake before large numbers of whites turn and condemn him. Of that 30% of white supporters (not who necessarily voted for Obama), I suspect only 10%-15% would be fair. I suspect that of this 10%-15% about 5% would support Obama no matter what he does because they just want to see him succeed. These whites will defend him to the end. The remaining 5-10% of pro-black voting whites would be strictly fair. If Obama inherits a mess from Bush, these whites are philosophical enough to keep it in mind, and they will always be fair in their judgment of the man’s actions, not his race. If Obama is clearly at fault, these white folks are gonna call him on it with no compunction at all. My point is that of the 30% of Obama’s general supporters, too few are truly capable of supporting him so that the bar he has to reach in order to keep their support will be far higher than it is for anyone else.</p>
<p>That now leaves the remaining 20-25% of white voters. These people are hardcore racists and would never vote for Obama under any circumstances. Many of these people are the sort who claim “I once considered Obama, but that Wright thing ended that!” These folks are lying. They never considered Obama at all. Anyone can see this. If they really considered him, nothing like Wright could have caused them to summarily dismiss the man, especially when the situation with Wright is so much more complex than they make it out to be. These are folks who claim “I would have voted for him, but he called me bitter!!! No way now!” These folks never would have supported Obama in a million years. I think of this 25% of hardcore racists, 15% are philosophical racists who not only will never vote for a black guy, but think any white who would is a race traitor. Many of them are not afraid to say it. This represents a huge raw number of Americans.</p>
<p>That is my view.</p>