<p>On the housing market. Not a bubble but coasts will have a flat spot soon.</p>
<p>Barrons, if the coasts flatten, won’t that affect Phoenix, Denver, Sacramento, Las Vegas? Can Miami really flatten out and not sell off?</p>
<p>Can we flatten out with all the no-money down loans? If real estate starts behaving poorly, maybe the Fed will stop and even lower rates. </p>
<p>Now I’m worried. You have been positive forever.</p>
<p>Hopefully even a slowdown will take some money out of the hands of those who have been simply rolling over real estate and profiteering why families of working people are squeezed out of the housing market. I would look to San Diego first…that has a high roller feel. </p>
<p>I don’t see a bubble bursting in California, because the number of new families entering the state is still on the rise, and that puts pressure on the housing market.</p>
<p>Working families are done affording real estate in the coastal areas of Cal. Cab drivers, barbers, teachers, and nurses used to be able to afford homes in places like SF.</p>
<p>I can’t see that ever happening again.</p>
<p>Now, doctors have trouble buying homes in SF.</p>
<p>So now our home equity rises and so, how will this affect all those financial college forms which ask for our home’s value? humm…</p>
<p>Barrons, thanks for mentioning the editorial.</p>
<p>This has been bothering me for awhile. How can this country compete in the world if we don’t make anything? </p>
<p><a href=“http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/12/opinion/12krugman.html[/url]”>http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/12/opinion/12krugman.html</a></p>
<p>barrons, nice to know there is another RE heretic on CC. </p>
<p>I am feeling the same way.</p>
<p>Maybe because I bought my first home in 1989. :eek:</p>
<p>SBMom, have you seen any slow down yet?</p>
<p>Yes-- we’re not yet in retrograde, but I would say the fact that the Sunday paper’s real estate supplement is 2x heavier than last summer tells the tale. Inventory is up so buyers are choosier, hesitating. Supply/demand.; Econ 101.</p>
<p>Key to selling now is pricing really well-- nobody wants to overpay in a high market with lots & lots of new choices round the corner.</p>
<p>SBmom, hmmmmmmmmm, thanks. We have problems coming.</p>
<p>Disclaimer: My husband calls me chicken little.</p>
<p>I think it will just ease the speculators out of the market which will be good for most of us. That will knock a little off the inflated prices but losing 5-10% out of a 25% gain in a year is only a little painful. Most other areas have not gotten that far out ahead of reality so Denver/Phoenix should not see huge losses as they are gaining population. Same for Vegas outside of the highrise condo market which has nothing to do with real homes. I think LV homes just got priced up to fit the hot economy there. Two people with HS educations can easily make $100,000 a year there and afford a basic new house on the edge of town at around $300k. That’s really not crazy. LV was just depressed after 9/11 and is making up.</p>
<p>“Two people with HS educations can easily make $100,000 a year there and afford a basic new house on the edge of town at around $300k. That’s really not crazy. LV was just depressed after 9/11 and is making up.”</p>
<p>No wonder people are moving there. That’s affordable.</p>
<p>barrons, what do you see happening in Miami?</p>
<p>I really don’t know much about Miami. I’m more West Coast and Northeast oriented. If lots of specs were buying and the values were way up it will probably be similar to Socal which is going flat right now. Here’s a little piece from a realtor blogger I like. He’s in Charlottesville.</p>
<p>"The bubble-watch continues.</p>
<p>WSJ -
The number of homes available for sale has increased sharply in some of the nations hottest real-estate markets one of several recent signs suggesting that air may be seeping out of the frenzied U.S. housing market.
In northern Virginia, an area dominated by the fast-growing suburbs of Washington, inventories are up 26% from a year earlier. Sales have slowed down for sure, says Tip Powers, president of Realty Direct Inc., Sterling, Va. He says home prices have flattened out and speculators are starting to shy away from the market because they no longer can count on quickly unloading properties at a profit.
Once the speculators slow down their purchases, I believe that market will slow
not pop or bust or (insert synonym here) but start to level off a bit. I will pull and post some local numbers shortly."</p>
<p><a href=“http://thehousingbubble2.blogspot.com/[/url]”>http://thehousingbubble2.blogspot.com/</a></p>
<p>This guy has been bearish for a long time, but I like his links.</p>
<p>I’d like to read the blog you mentioned. Can you provide a link?</p>
<p>Sure.</p>
<p><a href=“http://realcentralva.com/[/url]”>http://realcentralva.com/</a></p>
<p>Thanks Barrons.</p>
<p>I read some of your guy’s stuff. All I can say is I’d buy every house I could for $232,000 in San Diego. I’ll be waiting.</p>
<p>Me too. The bloggers in that site are so upset that other people bought and they didn’t that they convince themselves that prices are going to drop down to 10 year- ago levels. Then they will buy. Yeah, right.</p>
<p>I do like the links, and the site shows psychology at work.</p>