I am using 6.1 per thousand…
I out of 84 is close to a wash…if we use the 1 out of 5 number.
Per year? or over 4 years? Over the span of the survey ages (18-34 or whatever it was)?
That’s right per year.
College students.
So breakeven is around 1 out of 91.5 per year.
Sorry.
CF can decide the number.
@TV4caster, please stop it with saying question X isn’t any good because it might possibly maybe could be interpreted multiple ways. The nature of human language is that nearly anything can be interpreted multiple ways. (This is why most contracts have so much definitional boilerplate.) A well-constructed survey question isn’t completely non-ambiguous, it is reliable, in that the vast majority of respondents will interpret it in the same way. So please stop insisting on perfect non-ambiguity—that’s not the goal, nor is it likely possible.
@dstark thank you. Now, aren’t the 1 in 5 numbers over a lifetime (or at least a college career?)
I am using 1/5 over a college career of 4 years. Really it should be 5 or 6.
Which numbers do you want to use?
I don’t care. 
I was busy watching the basketball game. Warriors lost. Boo!
Wrong
True! Unfortunately the wording of some of the questions are not universally interpreted by the respondents in the same way.
I’m not asking for perfect non-ambiguity but that should be the goal as much as is possible.
By the way… Dfbdfb knows what he is talking about.
Sure ds. And I am the King of England
I just love the internet. People can claim to be anything they want. The posts prove otherwise. I showed some of the comments about statistics to the 40 year head of the statistics department at our top ranked state U and he actually laughed.
I’ve actually had enough of this closed-mindedness. Have fun in your little make-believe world.
Actually, dfbdfb, does know. 
The 1 in 5 study is here:
https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/221153.pdf
13.7% of the women reported a completed sexual assault since entering college. They don’t break it down, but the number who reported a completed rape is bigger than 8.5%, probably about 10% (forcible rape 3.4%, incapacitated rape 8.5%, probably some overlap).
26.3% of seniors reported having experienced sexual assault in college; that includes other types of assault besides rape.
NCVS numbers for completed rape only (not attempted rape, not other sexual assault), for college women, per year: 0.2%
I have to adjust the numbers.
I have to left CF do it. I am turning senile. I don’t think retirement is good for me,
That is not the definition of rape in Massachusetts, at all. I have no idea where the survey got that question. Massachusetts defines rape in [Mass. Gen. Laws ch. 265, § 22](General Law - Part IV, Title I, Chapter 265, Section 22). In pertinent part it defines rape as:
“Whoever has sexual intercourse or unnatural sexual intercourse with a person, and compels such person to submit by force and against his will, or compels such person to submit by threat of bodily injury and if either such sexual intercourse or unnatural sexual intercourse results in or is committed with acts resulting in serious bodily injury, or is committed by a joint enterprise, or is committed during the commission or attempted commission of an offense defined in section fifteen A, fifteen B, seventeen, nineteen or twenty-six of this chapter, section fourteen, fifteen, sixteen, seventeen or eighteen of chapter two hundred and sixty-six or section ten of chapter two hundred and sixty-nine shall be punished by imprisonment in the state prison for life or for any term of years.”
Massachusetts courts have read consent into the statute, but there’s nothing about “ongoing, voluntary, active” consent that I could find anywhere. That said, consent is a question of fact for a jury to decide, so maybe a jury would look for such things. They wouldn’t be instructed on it though.
CF, which numbers are you using in this bet ? .002 and ?
@dstark: The link you provided doesn’t say anything about “voluntary, active, ongoing consent” either. Does it not concern anyone else that a survey on rape isn’t using the actual definition of rape?
I looked for numbers of women experiencing completed rapes, in order to compare same things. So let’s use the Princeton numbers: 15.9% of women at Princeton reported that since they were enrolled at Princeton, someone raped them vaginally.
http://dailyprincetonian.com/news/2013/03/survey-quantifies-sexual-assault/
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/48599220/SES%20Summary%20Female%20Undergraduates.pdf
We’ll pretend that all the respondents were seniors, to make this a four year number. The actual four year number would be higher, but not that much higher because most assaults occur freshman year.
Then let’s use the BJS numbers: 0.2% of college women raped per year. We’ll pretend there are no duplicates, so the four year number will be 0.8%.
So we have on the one hand the Princeton women saying that15.9% of women are raped in their college career (actually more, but we’re only counting vaginal rapes here), and on the other hand, BJS saying that 0.8% of women are raped in their college career.
Will the new number be closer to 15.9%, or 0.8%? Is it 1 in 6, or 1 in 125?
(If someone wants to take me up on the bet, but they want to pick out one of the other surveys, or look at all sexual assaults instead of rapes, or try to use one year numbers, I’m amenable. Just give the numbers and cite the sources and we can come to an agreement. Frustratingly, each survey is asking slightly different questions so you have to work a little to get numbers to compare to any number in the BJS survey.)