“Against the will of the victim”.
What bothers me more is I got the arithmetic wrong on the bet. Depending on the numbers CF wants to use… Somewhere between 1/40 to 1/80 is a scratch. I used to be gifted…I don’t know what happened.
Back to the survey…@Demosthenes49, do you have the list of the questions? There are quite a few questions in the survey.
We haven’t seen all the questions on the survey, so we don’t know what other questions are being asked. If the “voluntary, active, ongoing consent” question was the only question that tried to elicit answers about rape, then I would be concerned, but I have no reason to believe they’re not asking other questions that don’t include that terminology.
I’m interested in the answer to the active ongoing consent question because of the new Yes Means Yes law in California. I realize that Harvard isn’t in California, but they’re surveying 28 different campuses with the same survey, and probably some of them are in California.
Ok… CF… I think the numbers are going to be closer to Princeton’s. 
I am still getting the arithmetic wrong.
@dstark: “Against the will of the victim” just means without consent, which is why I noted that “Massachusetts courts have read consent into the statute.” It doesn’t have anything to say about “active, ongoing, voluntary.”
I do not have the list of questions, I am responding to just what you posted. If there are other questions that bring the survey results in line with state law, then I would be interested to know that.
@“Cardinal Fang”: The affirmative consent law applies to college campus proceedings but not to the underlying criminal law. Ironically, the press around affirmative consent is likely to confuse the definition of rape in California even further.
I know it applies only to campus proceedings, but these are surveys conducted on campuses. Seems like a reasonable question to ask of students who might, in the future, be involved in those very campus proceedings.
@“Cardinal Fang”: It’s certainly reasonable to find out the extent of affirmative consent in practice. It’s worse than worthless for determining the amount of rape.
dfbdfb, does know more. I would think some questions in the surveys are similar to check for consistent answers. Dfbdfb, what do you think?
@dfbdfb, does know more. I would think some questions in the surveys are similar to check for consistent answers. Dfbdfb, what do you think?
[Repeat]
I’m confused about the idea of “voluntary” consent. If it’s not voluntary, it’s not consent.
California defines “consent” this way:
That seems to me to require active consent. That is, if the person was just lying there, not saying yes, not saying no, doing nothing to either stop the accused rapist or further the sexual contact, to me that would not be “positive cooperation.” I haven’t read any case law about it, though.
Who knows how good this new AAU survey will be. I’m stunned at the total junk that has previously been passed off as legit data.
Assuming that there is a way to do apples to apples, here’s what I’d bet on from the Syracuse study:
5.2% of female freshmen are forcibly raped during freshman academic year (9/1 through 4/30). I’ll take the under.
6.6% for the freshman study year (9/1 through 8/31). Under.
7.1% of freshman females are incapacitated raped during freshman academic year. Under.
9.6% for the feshman study year. Under.
I think I will take the under too.
I’m not offering the under here, @northwesty. I want to bet that the AAU numbers will be closer to the Syracuse (or Princeton, or whichever study you pick) numbers than to the BJS numbers.
We can’t directly compare the BJS numbers to the Syracuse numbers, because the Syracuse numbers are for freshmen only, and other studies have shown that freshmen are at higher risk for being raped. Also, the Syracuse numbers do not give a total for completed forcible rapes plus completed incapacitated rapes. We have to do some estimation. I propose the following:
The BJS numbers are for twelve months, so we should use the Syracuse numbers for twelve months. The Syracuse study says in twelve months, 18.6% of women experienced at least one of attempted forcible rape, attempted incapacitated rape, completed forcible rape, completed incapacitated rape. We need to eliminate the women who experienced only attempted but not completed rape. Estimate #1: assume that 2/3s of the women who experienced either attempted rape or completed rape experienced completed rape.* That gives us (2/3) * 18.6% = 12.4% of women were raped in their freshman year.
The BJS numbers are for all years, but the Syracuse numbers are for freshmen only. Estimate #2: assume that 2/3s of college rapes are perpetrated on freshmen. That gives us (3/2) * 12.4% = 18.6% of college women will say that they were raped at some point in their college career.
That’s over four years of college. We take that 18.6% number, and divide by four, because we need the yearly rate: (18.6%)/4 = 4.6%.
The BJS number is 0.2% of college women would say they were raped in the last twelve months. The Syracuse estimate says 4.6% of women were raped in the last twelve months.
I want to bet that the AAU survey number for percent of college women who say they were attacked in a way that qualifies as rape, in the last 12 months, will be closer to 4.6% than 0.2%.
Stark – Would you go under or over on 50% of the stated Syracuse numbers? I’d take the under.
What about 25% of the stated Syracuse numbers? I’d still go under.
http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=5176
From that site:
"Highlights:
Northwesty, those are fair questions.
If you think the numbers are less than 25 percent, why aren’t you betting $20, that goes to charity anyway, with CF?
Based on very limited studies I have seen, I am slightly worried about this bet because Asian students probably engage in sexual assault less than white students and Syracuse has a predominately white student body. So if the 28 schools are made up of IVY league schools or UC schools, the numbers may come up short of the 50 percent number.
Do we have a list of schools being surveyed?
I am more confident the Bureau of Justice numbers are wrong than I am about the Syracuse numbers.
The schools participating:
Brown University; California Institute of Technology; Case Western Reserve University; Columbia University; Cornell University; Harvard University; Iowa State University; Michigan State University; The Ohio State University; Purdue University; Texas A&M University; The University of Arizona; University of Colorado Boulder; University of Florida; University of Michigan; University of Minnesota, Twin Cities; University of Missouri-Columbia; The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; University of Oregon; University of Pennsylvania; University of Pittsburgh; University of Southern California; The University of Texas at Austin; University of Virginia; The University of Wisconsin-Madison; Washington University in St. Louis; and Yale University. Dartmouth College, a member of the Consortium on Financing Higher Education, whose non-AAU members were also invited to join the survey, will participate as well.
Seems like a pretty good sample.
I don’t think I’ve ever said that I believed the incidence levels reported in the DOJ stats. I’d probably take the over on those, just like I’d take the under on Syracuse.
But what I find interesting and potentially very telling in the DOJ stats are that they report:
A 50+% reduction in incidence over the past 20 years, which synchs up with big reductions in other types of crime. I don’t think anyone disputes those overall declining crime stats, which makes me think the trend for sexual assault is probably valid too.
All time lows for incidence for students and non-students alike.
Lower risk for college students than for non-college students of the same age.
If those three things are true, that paints a very different picture than the 1 in 5 drum beat. That’s all I take from DOJ.
We’ve seen a decline in crimes like murder and robbery, but have we seen a decline in white-collar crimes like fraud and embezzlement? Do we think that acquaintance rapists are more like embezzlers, or more like robbers?
That’s an interesting group of colleges. It’s representative of the colleges CC posters send their kids to, but not at all representative of all colleges.
@northwesty, if you want to take the under on 25% of the Syracuse numbers, you’re on! I’ll take the over. I’m afraid that the survey won’t report the numbers for freshman women only, though, so we will be unable to settle the bet.
Did you want to bet on completed forcible rapes (you bet < 1.65% for the year), attempted plus completed forcible rapes ( you bet < 2.25% for the year) , or all attempted or completed forcible or incapacitated rapes ( you bet < 4.65% for the year)?
Fang – DOJ stats report a big decline in all violent crime. Pretty much no one denies or questions those findings.
DOJ also reports huge drops in rape incidence overall. Most people accept that too. RAINN for example accepts them.
Then DOJ reports drops in college student rape that mirrors the other two. And also reports lower risk to college students as compared to same age non-students.
If DOJ is generally believed to be right on trends #1 and #2, I’m inclined to believe that they are right on trends #3 and #4 as well.