I gotta say I’m not wild about the BJS rates, but if you are, @northwesty, perhaps you have an explanation of why the BJS says the US rape rate from 2006 more than doubled from the rape rate for 2005? Do you think that there were more than twice as many rapes in 2006 (463,598 rapes ) as in 2005 (207,760 rapes), or do you think the numbers are inaccurate?
It’s not just random chance whether the ASU numbers will be higher or lower than others. The reported rate depends on a variety of factors including the wording of the questions, methodology of asking the questions, and the sample group. For example, the ASU survey supposedly uses broader definitions than most. An example question is below:
If answers to any of the above will be included as “sexual assault”, then that suggests the survey will find a higher rate than most other surveys among comparable groups (surveys including including campus students from mixed years compared to surveys including campus students from mixed years). However, if they are not counting all of these categories as “sexual assault” / “rape” and are instead only including physical force/weapons and/or incapacitation like the SES questionnaire does, then the results should be more similar to the SES type questionnaires, like the “1 in 5” study or the so called “Syracuse” study. I am also assuming it is an anonymous type survey, rather than the USDOJ or Congo type of interview, with less privacy.
Also note that the “1 in 5” study that has been frequently referenced in this thread found 3.4% reported forced rape, so to exceed the “1 in 5” numbers, you don’t need to have anywhere near 1 in 5 reporting forced rape.
@northwesty, I don’t care about the 1 in 5 number. I can’t tell if that number is attempted sexual assaults, sexual assaults, attempted rapes or rapes. 
There are other numbers and surveys besides the Bureau of Justice (DOJ) number as Data10 pointed out and those surveys came up with different numbers. Plus the way that survey is done…I think that DOJ survey is garbage.
My blink says the number for rape is 2 percent a year or more for women students who live on or near college campuses.
@northwesty, Thanks for the list of schools.
I like this survey. It was done a long time ago. It was also paid for by the DOJ.
This survey tried to correct for some of the flaws in the other DOJ survey.
Both surveys do not count incapacitated rapes. The questions are listed in this link.
https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/182369.pdf
The percentage of college women forcibly raped is in the 2 percent area. Maybe closer to 3 percent in a calendar year. If colleges rapes have really declined 50 percent, and I take that into account, add incapacitated rapes…I am still probably going to get 2 percent percentage of college women raped a year.
I don’t believe the 50 percent decline number but that’s ok.
The actual college rape numbers are higher but some women are raped more than once.
@dstark, the survey you just linked says that undergraduate women have a completed rape rate of 1.8% per six months. That would put the rate for four years in the 10% area, even assuming that there are a lot of women repeatedly raped.
@TV4caster, I hold a PhD in Linguistics (with a focus on uses of language in naturally-occurring speech) and I’m a tenured professor of Linguistics. When I point out that there is inherent ambiguity in nearly all human language, I would expect that I know what I’m talking about. However, you claim otherwise—so what are your credentials/background?
2% chance of being raped in a year raped is still a huge number. But a small fraction of what all these junk surveys say.
If the Congo and prison are in the 3% range per year, I’d guess that college students are less than 1% a year.
Some good data (high or low) would be a really good thing. When you have data that varies by 500 times, it is all meaningless.
1427: The focus on individual questions is misguided (though possibly quite well-meaning). If specific questions are ambiguous, in a well-designed survey there will be other questions that can clarify those ambiguous ones. (Also, there are often questions included that are basically "filler", designed to distract those taking the survey from the cenbtral items under investigation, so as to prevent "gaming" the responses.)
The new survey is anonymous, and conducted over the Internet.
[Harvard Sexual Conduct Survey FAQs](Frequently Asked Questions | Task Force on the Prevention of Sexual Assault)
@CF, you are right. I don’t want to double that number. My guess is there are fewer rapes in the spring and summer. I like to be conservative with the numbers. I like to understate rather than overstate numbers. I am very confortable with a 2 percent a year number.
@northwesty, you are a 30 year old woman in the Congo. You are in a war zone. You have been forced out of your residence. Forced! Key word is forced. :)You are homeless or living from place to place. On the move all the time. Do you think you are more likely to be raped than somebody who is still living in her residence?
And where are you getting this 3 percent number? Which page of the survey? 
@dstark, 2% a year puts the rape rate over a college career at, say, 5 or 6%. Still way too high, still way higher than those BJS numbers.
@northwesty, how much below 1 percent?
CF, Yes. The rape numbers are terrible.
I percent a year is terrible. I want to know northwesty’s number.
@dstark, for the Congo numbers look at Table 2, Totals. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3093289/
CF, I wanted northwesty to tell me. I am pretty confident he didn’t read that report.
@CF what do you think of the percentage completed number with Harvard’s survey?
No idea.
If you don’t agree with Congo at 3%, 3% per year is the rate I see cited for prison rape. Use that as your benchmark for terrifying and horrible.
So I think outraged parents would have burned college campuses to the ground if the actual chance of rape was 2% a year, 8% for a college career.
Campuses would definitely be smoking ruins at anything resembling the Syracuse stats. Which are something like 3-4X prison.
@northwesty, Who says parents know? There are estimates of 80 to 95 percent of college student rapes are not reported.
I don’t think college students are too excited to tell their parents either.
170 IQ; graduated from college at 17 with degrees in English and Physics; masters in Government at 19; editor of a major publication by 24; three decades as a TV commentator for various National programs (generally discussing and predicting Politics); senior policy advisor to 2 Administrations; retired author. Honorary Doctorate from an Ivy League institution.
I wasn’t arguing about language having an inherent ambiguity. I was arguing that your statement of nearly all language being ambiguous was wrong. I was also commenting about some of your other incorrect statements.
Sure most rapes are not reported to officials.
But 1 in 12 (8%) female college students actually being raped during their college years is a huge number of victims that have sisters, friends, parents, etc. that would/could hear about it. Female college enrollment in the U.S. is like 10 million.
What kind of kid would not tell a parent if they are raped? That’s beyond my comprehension and confirms that education for rape victims and hand holding through the legal system is of the utmost importance.
Or kids don’t understand what rape really is and we need to do a whole lotta education about what is and what isn’t criminal behavior.
A normal kid?