One risk is that she might be giving up the opportunity to compete in college. I don’t know what the backup plan is if not Princeton or Brown but this poster has mentioned schools like UNC and UVA in the past. Unlikely she could run at those. Up to her if this matters.
So you were recruited by Brown but not Princeton. How would you feel if, instead of Brown, you had been recruited by Harvard? Are you suffering from (in my view) the mistaken idea that Brown is somehow a lesser Ivy?
I know someone who was in an almost identical situation. Recruited by Brown but not appreciative of the opportunity, wanted more prestige (questionable), turned it down, did not get into any schools they were satisfied with. Following year got into a little Ivy LAC.
I am biased. One of my kids went to Brown and loved it. I get the family ties to Princeton and to me it seems pretty clear that that is what you want, so go ahead and take the risk. Family culture seems to have a strong pull here.
I know at least one Princeton family who would have been over the moon if one of their kids got into Brown. But every family is different.
Are you a risk taker or risk adverse?
(Personally, I’d jump on the Brown offer but I’m risk adverse.)
Follow your heart.
My D26 3 offers to choose from, and she chose her dream school, the most risky one. I tried to talk her into the safe(r) option, but at the end of the day, she looked me in the eye and told be she would regret it if she didn’t try, and would be plagued with “what ifs”. I suspect you feel the same.
This answers your question
It’s really about the choices if not Brown or Princeton. I forgot where you stand academically without an athletic boost. Are you above or below the GPA and test score medians of Brown, Princeton and the desired backups as that kind of determines your risks of not accepting Brown. If you are super competitive without an athletic boost, rolling the dice may be worth it. On the reward side, let’s say your preference for Princeton is 100 and your preference for Brown is 60, and the schools that are backup (matches or safeties, not other reaches) to Brown are 50, then the potential reward may be worth the risk. If on the other hand, Princeton is 100, Brown is 80 and the backups are 40, the reward doesn’t seem worth the risk.
You may have already answered this though I assume that the GUARANTEED ADMISSION to Brown is based on committing to the coach, applying ED and receiving a Likely Letter?
OP is a very strong applicant. Here on CC we’d probably call them average excellent but they are realistically competitive on their own two feet.
That was implied. On an earlier post OP was schedule for an OV at “another Ivy” with expectation of offer.
If you haven’t already, let the Princeton coach immediately know about the Brown opportunity. Unfortunately, you said you need to let Brown know by Sunday (?)–why not Monday? So there may not be enough time to play poker on this.
I think the Princeton coach has already said they aren’t giving support.
Ok, thought that was probably the case. The GUARANTEED ADMISSION wording is what made me not sure.
I’m confused by the situation. Is the Princeton coach unwilling to offer you full support in your application? And I didn’t think anything is really “guaranteed” at ivies. Yes a coach can give you full support in ED, and assuming you are top tier in academics in the pre-read, you are probably 99%. So I assume that is what you are?
But generally, if you are 99% brown, and maybe 80% chance for Princeton, I’d take my chances with Princeton. If you have zero coach’s support at Princeton, I’d do Brown.
Yes, she’s not fast enough for support at Princeton. She could walk on if admitted. I agree 95+% is probably the right probability across all supported recruits and probably 99+% for this one.
If the Princeton coach is not giving support, I would not bet on legacy at Princeton making the difference especially with such a good chance at Brown.
Especially with word on the street that Brown is having challenges reeling in their commits (like in this case). Probably why they are firm on a decision date. They need to work their list.
But she doesn’t want to commit to Brown. She wants to roll the dice at Princeton. Nothing anyone here says will change that. Not sure why we’re still talking about it.
Honestly, I have never heard of a kid getting a LL and not getting in if they kept up their end of the bargain (grades, test scores, rigor, behavior…) Have you?
To be fair, the deadline is right around the corner, I highly doubt any coaches are “just let me know whenever” at this point. No coach wants to end up empty handed.
And generous on keeping up grades, rigor, etc. As long as no suspensions, felonies, serious disciplinary action (i.e. student gets detention for a harmless Halloween prank which hurt nobody and did no property damage won’t move the needle; accusation of sexual assault is a problem…)