<p>And now a holiday surprise…more exemptions. Those that had policies canceled can now buy the bare bones catastrophic plans …the ones ‘only’ available to the young and health…those under 30. </p>
<p><a href=“Last-minute Obamacare exemption for those with canceled plans”>Last-minute Obamacare exemption for those with canceled plans;
<p>flossy:</p>
<p>my argument is an economic one, and one in which I think is a consideration for the foregoing wager discussion. And since it is economic, federal tax penalty vs. enrolling in ACA, the states have nothing to do with it. </p>
<p>The question is whether the invincibles will be swayed enough by the tax penalty to enroll. And since the tax penalty doesn’t kick in until April – for those that pay income taxes – the invincibles really have until then to decide. The states plans are not relevant until a decision has been made to enroll.</p>
<p>And, if I am reading correctly, dstark says, yes, plenty will enroll, and gp says no, few will enroll.</p>
<p>Back to the wager discussion.</p>
<p>Oh okay. Well, I’m not so big on the whole head counting thing at all since there are stop-gaps built into in the law and it’ll take a very long time for the long range economics to become anything close to clear. By then, going back will be darn near impossible imho. We will see.</p>
<p>Bluebayou, take a stand. 500,000 paid previously uninsured people in Calif or not?</p>
<p>How many people are going to sign up and not pay. 40 percent? </p>
<p>Let’s get real. ;)</p>
<p>People signing up now dont have to sign up if they dont want to sign up. Yet…they are signing up in California. </p>
<p>The real problems are in Florida and Texas. The numbers of signups are extemely low in those states.</p>
<p>"The question is whether the invincibles will be swayed enough by the tax penalty to enroll. "</p>
<p>I am seeing stories about whether anyone will pay a penalty next year after yesterday’s announcement. Someone from admin was repeatedly asked the question without an answer…</p>
<p>It would be an odd policy to say if you had insurance but no longer want to buy the new plan you don’t need to pay a fine but if never had one, you do. The logic of enforcement starts failing at some point.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>I’ll sit this one out dstark. (I really have no info on our state, since I haven’t been following too closely. However, I would imagine California could easily get 500k in new Medical enrollments. Free is free.)</p>
<p>While not interested in the the wager itself, I am available to hold the cyber-cash and promptly pay out the winner, less a small (ahem) “fee” for shipping and handling. :D</p>
<p>btw: in the local paper, Lee is quoted as saying that the goal of CoveredCa is 500-700k by “the end of March”.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>yes, they are signing up, at least in the Bay Area. LA County? Not so much. SanDiego Co appears to be tracking ok, but 85% of enrollments there are subsidized; only 15% are full pay.</p>
<p>But as GP notes, just because they sign up does not mean that they will pay come Jan. Moreover, given the mess up on the subsidies, folks may shortly find out that they are not eligible for a subsidy. And then, will they pay full freight? Dunno.</p>
<p>Come on bluebayou…</p>
<p>No guts…no glory. </p>
<p>I am sure you have heard that before.</p>
<p>GP is taking a stand.</p>
<p>You used the word many in describing how many people sign up and dont pay. </p>
<p>What percentage of people have signed up for healthcare insurance in the
past and dont pay the first payment?</p>
<p>I would love to see a link.</p>
<p>“While not interested in the the wager itself, I am available to hold the cyber-cash and promptly pay out the winner, less a small (ahem) “fee”
for shipping and handling.”</p>
<p>Now you are out if the running. You and kmcmom13. :)</p>
<p>The payment date for the bet isnt in Jan.</p>
<p>^^I’ll beat kmcmom’s fee by 10 basis points. :D</p>
<p>:)…</p>
<p>I don’t see why it matters if people are signing up for medicaid, private subsidized insurance or private unsubsidized insurance. The object of ACA is to get everyone insured - period. </p>
<p>I find the belittling attitude from people about those who will be getting medicaid and subsidized insurance disturbing.</p>
<p>So now those who had their policies cancelled because of the ACA are exempt from the tax penalties? I predicted that this would happen. But I thought it would take an act of Congress. I don’t think that POTUS acting unilaterally has the power under the Constitution
to exempt some people from a tax.</p>
<p>I think the payment for the wager, besides bragging rights, should be in bitcoins.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>From a practical matter, the only way to stop such “unilateral” action is to sue in the federal courts. But then that requires ‘standing’, and will take a long time.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>I thought the bet was 500,000 people with paid-for insurance from the California exchange. We have no way of knowing how many of those people previously had insurance.</p>
<p>I’m in for the bet. I say we will see half a million Californians with paid insurance bought on the exchange.</p>
<p>[$9M</a> Bitcoin haul buried in U.K. rubbish tip - Nov. 29, 2013](<a href=“http://money.cnn.com/2013/11/29/news/bitcoin-haul-landfill/]$9M”>$9M Bitcoin haul buried in U.K. rubbish tip)</p>
<p>We should go look for this to help with this wager.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>If that is true – and it cannot be – then the ACA is a failure before it starts. The CBO clearly states that millions will remain un-insured even 10 years after the fact.</p>
<p>CF, I wanted to give bluebayou an edge because he is a little wimpy…I mean cautious. :)</p>
<p>So far we have romani and CF joining the bet on the +500,000. </p>
<p>Where are the rest of you posters? </p>
<p>busdriver11 and texaspg, cute on the bitcoins. :)</p>
<p>“If that is true – and it cannot be – then the ACA is a failure before it starts. The CBO clearly states that millions will remain un-insured even 10 years after the fact.”</p>
<p>Those millions are illegal immigrants - who were barred from participating and people who will refuse to purchase insurance and opt to pay the penalty. And, of course, the people who would have been eligible for medicaid in states which refused to expand it.</p>
<p>Is the bet for 500,000 paid by the March deadline?</p>
<p>Oh wait, it’s 500k just in CA? </p>
<p>I didn’t realize that last night. </p>
<p>Oh well, I’ll still hop on board.</p>