<p>Texaspg, I have been thinking about your question and it may be as simple as adding up the exchange sign ups for jan, feb, and march to arrive at the newly insured number.</p>
<p>We are going to get some good info from covered ca. We should get the numbers for how many people signed up on and off exchange. We will have the insured last year number. From these numbers, we can make some decent estimates. </p>
<p>Okay, I’m going to complicate the numbers things a bit here. But the number of uninsured is not a static number is it?</p>
<p>In other words, the uninsured is not just an unfortunate group of people who can’t get insurance for some reason. They may be able to afford it but chose not to buy it this year. They may qualify for Medicaid but didn’t sign up because they’re healthy and it’s not their biggest problem right now. They could have lost a job and chose not to pay for Cobra. Maybe, they’ll get it in a few years but are wiling to live with some risk and buy a new car instead.This happens. </p>
<p>As we can certainly see from the slow sign-ups, not all of these 40-million people are desperately seeking out health insurance.</p>
<p>Dstark, I’ve no idea if I’m right but as a policy wonk that would be my recommendation if asked. I also would have fought vigorously not to delay anything. I didn’t have a problem with extending the 1st deadline for enrollment because of the issues with the website, but that’s the only extension I supported. </p>
<p>"…stories come out of people who thought they could wait to get insurance…SOL."
And stories of how it works, positive word-of-mouth.<br>
Think it will be like the Census, where a reduced number of workers stay in place to handle “in-progress” cases or approved exceptions. And they have to get billing resolved, for once and for all. </p>
<p>Not sure it matters how we count the masses at this point, whether now or next month we can accurately define who was uninsured or newly uninsured folks who are taking a risk by delaying. The point is we’re rolling out a new platform and there are thousands of individual tales, people who struggled with what it cost last year. </p>
<p>Emilybee, I understand.</p>
<p>^ I’m still going with my hunch, though! </p>
<p>We simply cannot make any assessments until open enrollment is over. In Massachusetts, applications increased by orders of magnitude from month to month with a surge of young people at the end. So far, ACA is following the same pattern. Maybe applications will drop precipitously in February and March. I doubt it, but we’ll know for sure in about eight weeks. </p>
<p>We can make many assessments as we gather information. We cant assess everything. </p>
<p>We know that the state of Washington will have more people covered with individual health insurance plans after this sign up period than there were before the sign up period. This is after 200,000 plus people had their insurance cancelled. </p>
<p>With all the Avik Roy links, I am surprised GP did not post Avik Roy’s latest in Forbes. 
At some point, there are going to be too many sign ups to repeal. Avik Roy says we have already gotten to that point. I think it is Feb 16 today. </p>
<p>I am hoping that Covered Cal releases off exchange sign up numbers. That will tell us a a lot.
If my memory is correct, There were approximately 1.8 million people covered with individual plans in Cal last year. So… If we get off exchange numbers, on exchange numbers, and percentage paid, we can compare this with the 1.8 million. </p>
<p>If other states release this info, we can compare also.</p>
<p>Then we can project. We may know how things are going before Mar 31 in many states.
For example, many states have already exceeded their expectations. </p>
<p>Very true, dstark. I was addressing the assumptions which some are making that we can pronounce ACA a failure based on the January numbers. For example, enrollment of young people ticked up by 3 percentage points January over December. Some have seized on the idea that this means the ending enrollment of the young would be about 33%, well below what it needs to be. In reality, the Massachusetts experience suggests youth enrollment will accelerate sharply the closer we get to March 31. </p>
<p>Personally, I’m much more interested in the numbers of newly insured excluding Medicaid. There are some very low estimates out there for all of this pain and chaos inflicted on people who didn’t have employer insurance but chose to purchase it independently. </p>
<p>Well…,we dont need to get a 40 percent number. </p>
<p>A 33 percent number is fine especially if insurance companies priced their policies expecting a lower percentage of young people signing up. </p>
<p>If not, premium hikes will depend on the states, but across the country, we are talking about a 1.5 percent increase in premiums if 33 percent of young people sign up. </p>
<p>As CF and calmom and maybe LF and ofhers have stated, it may be a bigger problem if older healthy people dont sign up. The middle aged and old pay more into the system. We want those healthy people to sign up.</p>
<p>If the healthy dont sign up, we can be talking about a 10-12 percent premium increase plus increases that reflect the cost health care plus increases for people as they age. </p>
<p>We could be talking about increases a little shy of 20 percent. </p>
<p>Then if insurance companies set their premiums by drawing cartoons on a napkin like I am doing with these numbers, we could see even higher increases. :)</p>
<p>We could see very small increases too if insurance companies overpriced their plans. Maybe even a decrease. </p>
<p>Somewhere between a 5 percent decrease and a 20 percent increase in premiums is our problem. :)</p>
<p>The odds of premium increases of 20 percent are extremely low, but there are alarmists out there that like to bet on low probability occurences. :)</p>
<p>^^Exactly. The real actuarial issue is the mix of healthy/non-users vs unhealthy/heavy users. (The young just happen to be a proxy for the former, but if the young who have signed up are sickly…)</p>
<p>Actingmt, my DH had insurance before, and he has insurance now, purchased through the exchange (no subsidy). That may not seem like a change to you, but we are breathing much easier. His coverage is better. His premium is about the same, rather than the typical 15-20% increases we used to see. If he gets sick, his coverage can’t be lost or capped. If he loses his job, he won’t also his insurance. If he decides he doesn’t like the insurance he has, he can change it next year. </p>
<p>All of this is new thanks to ACA. It doesn’t show up in the newly-insured stats, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t matter.</p>
<p>Well, those are a lot of what ifs that you see as benefits and I’m very happy for you. But, I wonder how many people will see those as benefits. Meanwhile, others have increased premiums and narrowing networks and some actual, real sick people have lost their doctors or the coverage for expensive medications. Meanwhile, everyone is going to clobbered with increasing taxes and a shrinking economy while people count heads. Carry on…</p>
<p>Bluebayou, :).</p>
<p>Actingmt, I look at life just the way you are looking at the medicaid issue.</p>
<p>When I buy a car, I say to the car salesman, “Just show me the back seat”.</p>
<p>The “ifs” aren’t trivial. Anthem in particular was infamous for rescinding coverage when people needed their insurance most desperately. And being able to change carriers is huge. We’ve been trapped at Anthem for 20 years, meaning they could do anything they wanted to us. Now they have to keep us happy. One of the most important things about ACA is that the consumer finally has some power. </p>
<p>LasMa, I agree.</p>
<p>Insurance is all about what-ifs. </p>
<p>That’s true, but there are real and current ACA consequences to balance out with the future what ifs. And, obviously no-one can be insured against everything, That would be silly. Different levels of risk are appropriate for different circumstances. We will see how this all turns out. So far, most of it seems to be delayed for some reason.</p>
<p>No, “so far” young people can stay on their parents’ policies. “So far” no one can be turned away because they’re sick. “So far” insurance companies must spend 80% of what they take in on paying claims. “So far” the cost barrier to getting preventive care is gone. “So far” the insurance company can no longer tell you, Sorry but you’ve used up all your benefits and you’re on your own for the rest of your care. Etc. Again, these are not insignificant changes, and they are helping millions of people. </p>