<p>CF, I have been thinking about that 1.1 million newly insured sign up number. It is bs.
It is time to be more agressive. ;)</p>
<p>I will use 11 million as formerly insured from the Kaiser report. 32.6 million uninsured that can buy insurance from private insurers. I will change the ratio of on exchange off exchange from 2/3…1/3 to 1/3 on exchange… To 2/3 off like the state of Washington. The numbers of newly insured improves quite a bit. </p>
<p>This still fits McKinsey’s survey.</p>
<p>Oh…and I am going to cap the 11 million formerly insured to 10 million. The individual insurance market is fluid. </p>
<p>Now I get this with the 1/3 on exchange off exchange 2/3 ratio. </p>
<p>5 million sign up on an exchange… 5 million newly insured…
5.5 million sign up on an exchange… 6.5 million newly insured…
6 million sign up on an exchange… 8 million newly insured…</p>
<p>We’ll see how stable the situation reported in razorsharp’s article is. Will the people who wrongly think there are no subsidies for them learn their error? Will low-income people and families who don’t have insurance see their relatives and neighbors using insurance, find out about it, and want some for themselves? How different will those survey results be, one year from now, two years from now, three years from now?</p>
<p>It’s interesting to model the spread of information from person to person. Some public opinion results are stable from year to year, and then some (gay marriage, for example) change with dizzying speed.</p>
<p>So looking again at that one-third minority – 70% of them don’t even know about the subsidies! That’s an important and easy-to-convey piece of information that might change their minds. </p>
<p>But then there’s the elephant in the room: </p>
<p>One odd thing about that survey is its asking about whether people knew there were “tax credits” available to reduce the price of insurance. Most people I know of who don’t read this thread don’t talk about the “tax credits,” but about subsidies. There could be, and I think there probably are, a lot of people who know that Obamacare offers subsidies for people who can’t afford insurance, but don’t know the precise mechanism of the subsidies, namely tax credits.</p>
<p>I think these links are great. They confirm the CBO’s numbers. So far, I think the CBO is doing a kick butt job.</p>
<p>I like this too. Mentions an insurance company in Minnesota that offers wider networks at a 12 percent increase in premiums. There are other issues covered too. </p>
<p>“With some of the lowest exchange premiums in the country, PreferredOne was able to seize a significant portion of the exchange market and has clearly had a noticeable effect on the competitive landscape in the state. PreferredOne currently controls more than half (58%) of the exchange market, whereas it held just 3% of the 2012 individual market. In the Minneapolis region, PreferredOne is able to offer the least expensive silver plan in part by offering a narrow network version of its other plans. As part of PreferredOne’s “Select” network, these plans only contracts with 17 hospitals in the state, compared to its broader “Choice” network, which contracts with 136 hospitals in the state. The Select network comes with lower monthly premiums: a 40 year-old enrolling in an Accent Select silver plan would pay $154 per month, compared to $172 per month for a broader network Accent Choice silver plan.”</p>
<p>I noticed that too, but I think there was another poll about a week ago that also showed widespread lack of awareness about the subsidies – and that might have used the word “subsidies”.</p>
<p>I’d also point out that everything doesn’t come to a grinding halt on March 31st – a lot of uninsured people may be eligible to sign up outside of the open enrollment periods, because that may include many people likely to experience the sort of events that make them eligible – such as moving to another state or experiencing a material change in income. This is especially true among that 18-29 year old age group. </p>
<p>Also, in the Medicaid expansion states, Medicaid eligibility will continue all year round – so the people on the poorer end of the spectrum will tend to get picked up when they actually get sick and show up at an emergency room. </p>
<p>"SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Covered California™ announced today that 1 million people statewide have enrolled in health care coverage in the exchange’s first historic open-enrollment period, which ends March 31.</p>
<p>Covered California’s enrollment reached the 1-million mark late Friday. By the end of Saturday, enrollment reached 1,018,315 in the health care exchange marketplace. The figure represents the number of people applying for coverage and selecting insurance plans for themselves and their family members through the exchange."</p>
<p>Kaiser attempted to measure insurance market competition after the enactment of the ACA. The enactors hoped to make markets more competitive. Did that happen? Early results are mixed.</p>
<p>Calif sign ups are now running close to Dec’s rate with one big difference. Most of the sign ups now are previously uninsured. . I am using the McKinsey survey to form this opinion. </p>
<p>Well that’s what I would have anticipated. The previously insured would have wanted to maintain insurance, and either gone right away to the exchanges to avoid a lapse in coverage if their old policies were ending, or to save money if the exchanges offered lower premiums, either with or without subsidies. </p>
<p>The people without insurance would not have been in the same hurry – except for a small subset who had urgent medical needs – but the healthier uninsured group would have been more likely to procrastinate and also rationalize that they can take the risk of another 3 months without insurance and save on the cost of three months of premiums. </p>
<p>I mean – just looking at a strictly rational economic model, it makes sense for that group to wait. </p>
<p>Calif was averaging around 6,000 sign ups a day the first 9 days of March. The next 6 days of March, through Saturday…Calif is averaging over 15,000 a day. :)</p>
<p>Looks like we are getting the surge. Because there are fewer holidays in March than Dec, and the sign up period extends to Mar 31, there is a chance March sign up numbers exceed December sign up numbers even though most of the previously insured have already signed up. </p>
<p>I poked over to Healthcare.gov, and what I didn’t see made me think we might have passed the surge there. When healthcare.gov is exceptionally busy, as it was Friday and Saturday, users are warned that they might be queued. I don’t see any warning like that now. </p>
<p>To me, “we will see” is he only reasonable way to go. As smart as we threaders are, we don’t begin to have access to the full range of info, discussions, suppositions and negotiations among the big players. Then or now. We look for info, we wade through opinions, we try to filter the reports from those without real expertise, we try to piece together what we do feel is solid. That’s the best we can do. We will see.</p>
<p>California is currently engaged n a massive multi-million dollar effort to sign-up Latinos. The state also received a Federal grant of 155-million dollars at the end of January to spend on rounding up additional sign-ups. Not sure if every state is keeping this busy and that would explain the national numbers being lower. </p>
<p>A recent sign-up quoted in the LA Times said she was never interested until she found out is was free. Very telling. </p>