<p>Baby is probably an appropriate word. :)</p>
<p>We can have fun now…what is the over under bet line?</p>
<p>Nobody has to do anything if they lose…just fun. </p>
<p>6.3 million? Do we have anybody who thinks the final sign ups are going to be over 6.3million? Under 6.3million?</p>
<p>DStark, I don’t understand this comment from you:
</p>
<p>Medicaid is insurance. People on Medicaid generally are not charged premiums. So everyone who was previously uninsured and has now gone to Medicaid is now insured… and ability to pay has nothing to do with it.</p>
<p>I haven’t been following the math part of figuring out how many previously uninsured are now insured – but obviously the new Medicaid signups need to be counted in assessing how that number changes post-ACA.</p>
<p>People forget that the Medicaid expansion is an integral piece of ACA. The exchanges are generally structured in a way so that applicants for paid insurance are automatically referred to Medicaid when their income falls in range- so it isn’t even as if most applicants are choosing one or another. If a person with poverty-level income establishes a user account on an exchange in an exchange in a Medicaid expansion state with he intent to shop for insurance, that person will be diverted to Medicaid at the outset. </p>
<p>What are the terms? Total signups including non-payers, or just payers? It would be easier to use total signups, because that’s easy to ascertain.</p>
<p>I’ll take the under. Total signups, including people who don’t pay, will be less than 6.3 million.</p>
<p>“Not a socialist, just a humanist.”</p>
<p>LOL. The road to hell is paved with good intentions.</p>
<p>That’s not the only road to hell. People with bad intentions get there too.</p>
<p>This thread is becoming hilarious. We got one poster spouting numbers like an attack dog and other posters who are in a heightened state of arousal that heavily subsidized people are signing up for Obamacare. This is like saying because millions are watching the Kardashian reality show (no admission charge), it must have some artistic merit.</p>
<p>Calmom, Yeah… . I guess I wasnt clear. </p>
<p>We were talking about people who paid for private insurance last year and could qualify for medicaid this year? Some… But not many would be my answer. What is yours?</p>
<p>Medicaid is huge to ACA. It is too difficult to track how many previous uninsured now have medicaid so that is why I am not tracking medicaid in that way. There isnt enough info. That information will come out. </p>
<p>The McKinsey survey is another story.
There may be enough info to get a decent idea how many uninsured are signing up for private insurance. </p>
<p>We could get a good range.</p>
<p>CF…just sign ups…</p>
<p>Ok you have the under…</p>
<p>CF, Obviously, I have to take the over 6.3 million. </p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Medicaid is not insurance. It is welfare. Some states use taxpayer dollars to purchase insurance for Medicaid recipients but Medicaid is not insurance. </p>
<p>Calmom, I think you stepped into the middle of a conversation dstark and I were having. I said that some people who bought insurance last year will have gone on Medicaid this year, and that has to be taken into account when trying to calculate how many people were uninsured last year and bought private insurance this year.</p>
<p>Dstark replied that he didn’t think very many people who had private insurance last year will be on Medicaid this year, because if you could afford to buy private insurance last year, you probably are above the Medicaid limits this year. I agree with that guess.</p>
<p>It’s nothing about denigrating the Medicaid expansion. We’re just trying to figure out how many people newly have coverage by patching together numbers from different sources.</p>
<p>
Since costs won’t be offset unless we actually see paying customers, signups seem kind of irrelevant. The dust won’t clear for months and the numbers might be massaged as to who really paid, but…</p>
<p>The administration picked 7MM, the CBO 6MM, and I’ll go with 5.2MM paying customers</p>
<p>5.2 million paid customers would be awesome .</p>
<p>Since that would be only roughly 75% of the business model, I wasn’t worried about being too generous, dstark.</p>
<p>That paying customer thing is the hill to climb, besides a hypothetical surge.</p>
<p>My number might be lower than yours. </p>
<p>5.2 million is a great number. You might be right too. That number could be very very very close to the real number.</p>
<p>Didn’t see a deadline stipulated and I’ll be surprised if the 31st is really going to be one.</p>
<p>Dont get goofy and all political. Your number is good. Could be accurate.</p>
<p>I already bet the date wasnt going to hold because there are going to be too many people that wait until the last
second. Plus some exchanges may crash.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>No. “Welfare” is a system by which money is paid to the recipient, or sometimes to a person designated to manage the money on behalf of the recipient… A person on Medicaid does not get any money. </p>
<p>Medicaid is a system of government subsidies to pay for medical expenses incurred by poor people. The provider payments are either made directly by the government, or (as I believe is now far more common), the government makes premium payments to an HMO or other insurer which make the provider payments. Thus Medicaid functions either as a form of single-payer (government) insurance, or just like any other insurance – the recipient gets an insurance card and provides that to medical providers if and when seeking medical services. </p>
<p>^^^^
It’s welfare. Whether the provider payments are paid directly by the govt or through a conduit, it’s a distinction without a difference. It certainly isn’t insurance where the company has to actuarially determine the amount of premiums to charge for an estimated amount of medical expenses incurred by policyholders.</p>