After Potomac, who's the "Underdog" ?

Parent Cafe
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<p>I have read many “spin” articles this morning in response to yesterday’s politics.</p>

<p>I have seen articles where the Clinton campaign is claiming to be both the front-runner and the underdog in the upcoming contests in Texas, Ohio, and PA.</p>

<p>I have also seen articles where Obama is considered the underdog (because Clinton is “expected” to win), and others where he is the profound front-runner because of momentum.</p>

<p>Everyone likes to claim to be the “underdog” if it gives an advantage. Any thoughts on who the real “Underdog” may be now that the race is coming to an end?</p>

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<p>Is there any doubt who the underdog now is? Yesterday Obama began cutting into Clinton’s core support.</p>

<p>And its interesting that Huckabee is still nipping at McCain’s heels. It will be interesting to see what role he plays at the convention.</p>

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<p>I don’t think it is over yet.</p>

<p>[Obama</a> stays on roll with sweep - The Boston Globe](<a href=“http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/02/13/obama_stays_on_roll_with_sweep/]Obama”>http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/02/13/obama_stays_on_roll_with_sweep/)</p>

<p>"“We are going to sweep across Texas in the next three weeks,” Clinton said at a rally last night in El Paso. “I’m tested, I’m ready, let’s make it happen!”</p>

<p>The Lone Star State has a 35.7 percent Hispanic population, nearly identical to the 35.9 percent in California, where Clinton won on Super Tuesday by capturing the Hispanic vote by a roughly 2-to-1 ratio.</p>

<p>She also hopes to do well in Ohio, appealing to working-class voters and touting the endorsement that she picked up yesterday from former US senator John Glenn. A SurveyUSA poll released yesterday suggested Clinton had a 56 percent-to-39 percent lead in the state, where she and Obama have agreed to debate on Feb. 26."</p>

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<p>Ron Paul is definitely the real underdog.</p>

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<p>Ron Paul is from Texas so my guess is he will probably get a pretty good percentage of the vote. His relatively good performance in this primary demonstrates how disenchanted some Republicans are.</p>

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<p>Ron Paul has put together an impressive string of 4th and 5th place finishes in most of of the primaries and caucuses. And now he is moving up by virtue of most of the candidates ahead of him having smartened up and dropped out. But hey, the Democrats have Ralph Nader, so the Republican can have Ron Paul to fill the same role.</p>

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<p>“The Lone Star State has a 35.7 percent Hispanic population, nearly identical to the 35.9 percent in California, where Clinton won on Super Tuesday by capturing the Hispanic vote by a roughly 2-to-1 ratio.”</p>

<p>Obama won the Latino vote by 10 POINTS in Maryland, and by 6 points in Virginia. He also won the Latino vote in Washington, Maine, and Kansas the previous weekend. </p>

<p>But it shouldn’t matter - he could lose Ohio and Texas by as much as 12 points he’d still be ahead.</p>

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<p>Just announced that Hillary has started running attack ads in Wisconsin. Do you think this is advice from the new campaign manager? Personally, I think it may be another bad move on her part. :frowning: It just reeks of desperation.</p>

<p>In addition, Bill Clinton’s ex-campaign manager is holding a press conference at 1:00pm to endorse Obama… :confused:</p>

<p>It will be interesting to see the machine in action for one final test. Get ready for some entertaining political games.</p>

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<p>“It just reeks of desperation.”</p>

<p>Well, she IS desperate. Expect to see the race card played at least several more times.</p>

<p>By most accounts, Obamadama is ahead by 100 pledged delegates, give or take 10. After Wisconsin and Hawaii, that will grow by 15 more. It will grow by another 10-15 in Vermont/Rhode Island.</p>

<p>Texas and Ohio together have 256 pledged delegates. Each awards delegates proportionally, by legislative district, I believe. There are sections of major cities in both states with 70-80% African-American populations. For Hillary to catch up in Texas/Ohio, the split would have to be roughly 190 to 66. No state - including New York - has come anywhere close to such a split for Hillary. So virtually regardless of what happens on March 4th, Obama remains ahead in pledged delegates - the only open question is by how much.</p>

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<p>HC HAS to attack now, otherwise she’s done. She needs to win big in both Ohio and Texas to have any chance.</p>

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<p>Well, since Dem. primary voters tend to eat their frontrunners for lunch, I think both candidates are reluctant to accept the title; however, I noticed that Obama did not focus on Clinton last night in his speech but rather seemed to be looking forward to McCain and the general election. By doing so he tacitly acknowledged his new position. I think Clinton is definitely the underdog and that the next three weeks might be nasty… but it will be good practice for Obama, assuming he ultimately gets the nomination.</p>

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<p>1sokkermom, the “attack ad” Clinton is running in Wisconsin basically challenges Obama to debate in Wisconsin, and says she has a better health plan. I guess that’s what passes for an “attack” ad on the Dem side - but it’s a pale shadow of the kind of stuff the RNC used on Harold Ford in Tennessee in '06. Not much in the way of “desperation” as far as I can see.</p>

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<p>I agree with kluge. I would like to see the Clintons throw a lot more attack ads on Obama and test his mettle. If he can’t survive those attacks then he will be in trouble in November. </p>

<p>I can already see it: “Chicago community organizers for the truth”.</p>

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<p>I have to agree with Kluge. I just watched the ad. Here’s the full text:</p>

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<p>Not really attacking yet. But I’m sure it will come.</p>

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<p>Ok. I agree. Attack was a strong word. I’ll concede to “negative”.</p>

<p>According to the WSJ, Hillary may start skirting around some campaign finance issues if her “supporters” start running their own ads. That way, Hillary can also blame someone else if things get too <em>nasty</em>. ;)</p>

<p>[Big</a> Clinton Fund-Raisers May Run Their Own Ads - WSJ.com](<a href=“http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120286639798963915.html?mod=googlenews_wsj]Big”>http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120286639798963915.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)</p>

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<p>Why should he debate? If I were him, I wouldn’t. They’ve already laid their policy cases before the voters. Why is she so reluctant to go out and meet the voters? (or will she have to bus them in again?)</p>

<p>As for health care, Hillary’s plan is to force reluctant individuals to pay into an already broken system (with a nice rakeoff for private insurance companies), while Obama’s plan is to provide funds for individuals to pay into an already broken system (with a nice rakeoff for private insurance companies.)</p>

<p>But, hey, at least both are cheaper than the so-called “stimulus package”. :rolleyes:</p>

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<p>sokkermom, now THAT does reek of desperation to me. By law her campaign manager can’t even talk to anyone considering starting an independent campaign on her behalf. Skirting indeed.</p>

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<p>I see that as an attack ad – though not much of one.</p>

<p>I think the GOP will have to tread VERY carefully with its attack ads on Obama in the fall. I don’t think the Harold Ford kind of BS that may have flown in Tennessee will work on a national level against Obama.</p>

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<p>"Expect to see the race card played at least several more times.</p>

<p>Already started</p>

<p>2/12/08</p>

<p>Rendell: Race Factor Could Hurt Obama</p>

<p>?HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — Gov. Ed Rendell, one of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s most visible supporters, said some white Pennsylvanians are likely to vote against her rival Barack Obama because he is black.</p>

<p>“You’ve got conservative whites here, and I think there are some whites who are probably not ready to vote for an African-American candidate,” Rendell told the editorial board of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette in remarks that appeared in Tuesday’s paper.</p>

<p>To buttress his point, Rendell cited his 2006 re-election campaign, in which he defeated Republican challenger Lynn Swann, the former Pittsburgh Steelers star, by a margin of more than 60 percent to less than 40 percent.</p>

<p>“I believe, looking at the returns in my election, that had Lynn Swann been the identical candidate that he was — well-spoken, charismatic, good-looking — but white instead of black, instead of winning by 22 points, I would have won by 17 or so,” he said. “And that (attitude) exists. But on the other hand, that is counterbalanced by Obama’s ability to bring new voters into the electoral pool.”</p>

<p>Rendell, chairman of the Democratic National Committee in 2000 and previously Philadelphia’s mayor, endorsed Clinton on Jan. 23.</p>

<p>Pennsylvania holds its primary April 22.</p>

<p>Several figures in Clinton’s campaign, including her husband, the former president, have been criticized in recent weeks for raising Obama’s race. In response, Bill Clinton has said he will stick to promoting his wife, rather than defending her.</p>

<p>Later Tuesday, Rendell’s spokesman said the governor did not mean to offend anyone.</p>

<p>“He was simply making an observation about the unfortunate nature of some parts of American society,” said spokesman Chuck Ardo. “He wasn’t being critical, he wasn’t making accusations, but just being realistic.”</p>

<p>[The</a> Associated Press: Rendell: Race Factor Could Hurt Obama](<a href=“http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gIjYa42R0UUEGs0_AyNg506-z8FgD8UP1VUG0]The”>http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gIjYa42R0UUEGs0_AyNg506-z8FgD8UP1VUG0)</p>

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<p>Maybe Pennsylvanians are reluctant to vote for Republican former football players. </p>

<p>But I’m all FOR negative ads - absolutely the best way to learn about a candidate is to hear the nastiest things his/her opponents are willing to say about them. Besides, they make for great entertainment, and are good for the economy. What’s not to love?</p>