<p>Lots of good discussion on the numbers there, and I thank everyone who posted links to other studies with different numbers than the BoJ. This is exactly how we can get the discussion moving forward instead of insisting on the 1 in 5 number and claiming that there is a rape culture.</p>
<p>Greenwitch posted a BoJ study that reports annual incidence of college rape at 35 in 1000. That’s 3.5% per year. LEt’s compare this to the CDC study, which says 19% over college life, which I had earlier assumed to be 6 years for graduation on average. This gives 3.33% per year. The two numbers match closely, and map to 1 in 30. Not 1 in 5 as the rape culture believers would say. Not 1 in 500 as in the population at large per the other BoJ study. But somewhere in between, at 1 in 30. </p>
<p>Note that this 1 in 30 number includes both rape and sexual assualt (for both the BoJ study and the CDC study). Rape is far less common than sexual assault, and while some sexual assault is criminal, not all sexual assault is. My personal belief is sexual assault is 10 times more common than rape, so the real rape percentage is likely 1 in 300. But I have no numbers to prove it, and I would like to hear other’s perspectives on this. </p>
<p>Regardless, 1 in 30 or ~3% doesn’t conclude a rape culture, but also doesn’t conclude that campus rape is not a problem. It is absolutely a problem if 3% of the girls on campus may be raped in a given year. There is a general consensus that a few boys rape or commit sa more than once, and I am assuming here that such serial rapists/sexual assaulters commit the act 3 times. That means 1% of boys conduct 3% of the rapes/sexual assaults. That means 99% of the boys are not in any shape or form associated with the commission of rape or sexual asault.</p>
<p>This is an important number to remember before we go for more behavior restrictions/modifications. 99% of boys are not engaging in any shape or form of rape or sexual assault. This clearly concludes that there is no rape culture, unless you consider 1% adoption rate to be indicative of a culture. The rape activists are barking up the wrong tree here.</p>
<p>There was some concern raised about the validity of the BoJ study as well. The key point that is missed is that if the same methodology shows a 50% drop in incidence over 40 years, even if the absolute numbers are wrong relatively speaking incidence of rape and sexual assault has dropped by 50%. I still do not see anyone rejoicing this fact. Why is that? One central feature of activists is unwillingness to show happiness - as they need a cause to rebel against.
This is not healthy for public policy, however. Let us not fall into that trap. Let us acknowledge the progress and then concede that more work needs to be done to lower the incidence from 3% to negligible.</p>
<p>How can that be done? The primary recommendations have been behavior restriction/modifications. It is indeed true that the CDC study reports that more than half of the cases of rape and sexual assault involved incapacitation due to alcohol intake. Does this mean we should go for dry campuses? If we survey the results of the War on Drugs, however, we will immediately conclude that prohibition doesn’t work. We may wish for a draconian system where expulsions are the norm, but jailing people for drug possession and distribution has not solved the drug problem, it has only made the jail population go up. Young people will drink as long as the novelty of drinking is there. I would instead lower the age of drinking, teach young people to drink responsibly at home, so that when they land in college they are seasoned veterans at downing pitchers. They will engage in that anyway.</p>
<p>The other suggestion was moving from No is No to Enthusiastic Yes is Yes. Frankly, I think that’s just plain stupid. To the proponents of Enthusiastic Yes is Yes I would like to ask the following: Have you ever engaged in sex when your long term SO/spouse/domestic partner wanted to but you were not really in the mood though you were really not completely turned off by the idea of sex either? In such cases did you feel that you were raped? Rape conviction is problematic because of he said she said in the first place. To add yet another subjective layer to it - the level of enthusiasm - is just going to make trying rape cases even more difficult. The law needs clear guidelines and not more vagueness. Besides there is little chance Enthusiastic Yes is Yes will ever become the law. No means No has lowered rape and sexual assault incidence by 50% so let’s stay with it.</p>
<p>Finally, there is a concern that rape is a result of hookup culture. To this, I can only laugh. Please forgive me here but if parents think they can stop their kids from having sex they are completely out of touch with the real world. The hookup culture unlike rape culture is real and here to stay as kids get benefits out of it (otherwise they wouldn’t participate). Both males and females have sexual needs. To try to deny that and make Victorians out of our kids - no drinking, no sex, strict rules of courtship - is not only wishful thinking, it is harmful thinking as well which is going to be laughed out of the room by the kids. They are adults and we need to let them choose their own behavior instead of helicoptering for ever.</p>
<p>I will leave you with the wise words of someone who wrote this when today’s parents were the kids:</p>
<p>
</p>