Am I reaching too high?

I’m a high school junior. For most of high school, I’ve wanted to go to GA Tech and have built my course load as such. Recently, I’ve been considering schools like Rice, where the culture is a bit less cut throat, but the academics are still rigorous. Problem is, Rice is more selective, and will require more Merit aid (my family income is pretty high, so I won’t get much in needs-based). Could I get into Rice, and how much can I except in merit?

White female, Jewish
GPA 4.0, weighted 4.7ish
ACT: total 34, Math 29 or 31 (can I superscore?), English 35, Reading 35, Science 36, Writing 29
AP’s: Human Geography (5), World History (5)
Current (acedemic) Courses: AP US History, AP Computer Science A, AP Physics 1, AP Calculus AB, AP English Language and Composition
Senior Course Plan: AP Macroeconomics, AP Computer Science Principles, College English, AP Calculus BC, AP Statistics, Internship
All academic classes either AP or Honors

National Honors Society Member
Mu Alpha Theta Member
Captain of Fencing Team
Teacher at Sunday School
Camp Counselor at GS camp
Robotics Club member
Robotics Club animation/graphics expert
Robotics Camp Counselor
3rd chair cellist in top orchestra at school
Bronze Award & Silver Award
(If all goes well this summer, Gold Award)
Duke TIP state level
Number 9 Women’s Fencer in High School League (We are considered a club sport in my state)

You could get into either of those schools, but it isn’t guaranteed, and I wouldn’t expect anything in merit as your profile makes you competitive, but not good enough for any merit.

What would I have to do to be good enough for merit, then?

Google common data set for each of these schools and look at the profiles of their admitted students for last year. To have a reasonable chance of merit aid, you should be in the top quarter for GPA/test scores.