An outside opinion towards my chances of admission

I’m applying to Harvard this Fall and I wanted a second opinion regarding my chances for admission. My Senior year I’ve maintained a 4.0 GPA with Dual Enrollment and AP classes taking up my entire transcript. I’ve been playing guitar as well as Cello for 5 years now and have performed live with church bands and independent acts. I own and manage three businesses, two Painting With A Twist franchises and an online business that made it to the Semi finals of the Thiel Fellowship. I paint murals professionally and do artwork by commission in my free time as well as teaching acrylic painting classes to charity events. My business is one of the largest donors to my local charity’s. I’m initially from a small town but I transferred to an online non traditional program in my local area and moved to a larger city to support myself in an apartment in Florida. I currently have a score of 2300 on my SAT and I’m studying for my subject tests now in advance in hopes of obtaining a perfect score. I have an avid love for philosophy and plan to apply for the Davidson Fellows scholarship in September. I start on the varsity basketball team that’s closest to me, last year we won the first district championship in my schools history, I am taking MMA classes, I hunt, and I climb mountains for exercise in the off season. I wish to pursue a career in politics so twice a week I meet with a toastmasters speaking group. I feel confident about my chances of admission but over the past few years my GPA has been on a decline. My senior year I maintained a 4.0 but the years before I could only manage a 3.2. This was due to my business situation, being hospitalized twice, and the deaths of several of my family members. With all of this in mind, what are my chances of getting into Harvard University as a political science major?

About 5% – like everyone else. But why are you even taking time to inquire? You’ll know 100% in under two weeks.

This should be in the chance forum, but the best course of action is to just wait until your decision comes – it will be soon enough.

Your chances are better than most applicants, inasmuch as you have a chance. They are no better than other applicants, inasmuch as your statistical probability of acceptance is not very good. Until you receive your notification, nobody can say what your chances are. Harvard will reject thousands of applicants with comparable qualifications. Shall I say that, unlike the entire pool of applicants, your chances are probably 20-25%, instead of 5%? There, I’ve said it. Good luck to you, and to thousands of other brilliant, accomplished kids who will probably be disappointed.

Sorry about the unfortunate circumstances you faced with the deaths of family members. About your chances, I’d say they seem good but your GPA seems to be holding you back. I’d never tell anyone to expect admission to Harvard, and I’d keep that policy for you, but you have better chances than most. Good luck