<p>Is anyone else here mesmerized by the Scotland referendum? </p>
<p>I do NOT want a political debate here, only your prediction. Which side will prevail on Thursday: the YES? or NO? </p>
<p>YES, by less than 1%.</p>
<p>I’m hoping no, but really no idea. I have several friends who live in Scotland. I was visiting one in Edinburgh this summer and was interested to learn that anyone living in Scotland currently gets a vote (that friend is English and she and her son will vote and our other friends who came down from Aberdeen and is Scottish will of course. ) but Scots not living there currently don’t get a vote. I was surprised.</p>
<p>When I was visiting it looked like the no vote would prevail. Things have really tightened up since then.</p>
<p>I think it will be no because of the economic uncertainty. I found this informative-</p>
<p>Yesterday, I would have predicted a narrow NO, but the recent polls show the YESs are increasing. I honestly have no idea what’s going to be the result.</p>
<p>@tom,
People don’t always vote w their heads.</p>
<p>I will guess yes, but I’m usually wrong about stuff like this.</p>
<p>What happens to the Royal Family if they do split? And what is the driving force behind it? </p>
<p>Does the new Scottish government get to nationalize the palace in Edinburgh, if YES prevails?</p>
<p>If only King George III had been willing to decide independence by voting. </p>
<p>I think fear has decreased and so a Yes vote is possible. Scotland knows that it owns the vast majority of the North Sea oil, that they can sell most of it since they supply 40% of their own needs with renewable energy, that the Scottish MPs have voted differently than the prevailing majority on recent social issues (the bedroom tax, privatizing the mail, cutting child benefits, etc.). </p>
<p>I have no idea about the outcome of the vote, but I believe that if they vote to separate, Britain will not be happy and (justifiably) treat them like France or any other country. This will be bad for Scotland and their big dreams won’t materialize. </p>
<p>I wouldn’t blame them for voting yes. But I can’t predict what will happen in the end.</p>
<p>I’m thinking no. Whichever they decide, I’m finding it fascinating. I listened to an NPR podcast about how Scotland intends to claim the oil in the North Sea and England is saying I don’t THINK so. Apparently, the fate of that oil has been decided long ago (I think they said the 1960s) and its (revenues) are to be portioned out according to UK population of which Scotland is 8% (?), therefore their portion is 8%, no more, no less. The report also said that the oil is getting more and more difficult to extract, so Scotland would have to contend with that problem. I can only imagine how edgy everyone over there must feel. I know I’m on pins and needles.</p>
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But the Scots are a day late and a quid short.</p>
<p>It would have been an economic bonanza for them in the 70’s, but the North Sea fields are in steep decline & the UK is now importing natural gas from Norway. The UK fields are operated by private companies, not by regime representatives the way ISIS does it. Additionally, the oil leases were negotiated w the UK; those contracts will be voided. With no fiscal regime in place, what oil company (or for that matter, ANY company) would want to invest capital in such regulatory & fiscal uncertainty. </p>
<p>And an 18-month transition is a blink of an eye. It took longer than that to potty train my kids.</p>
<p>Both Scotland and the rest of the UK would end up being much diminished politically and economically by Scotland successfully going independent IMO. </p>
<p>In some ways, if the Confederacy had won the Civil War, both the north and south are unlikely to have developed separately into a 20th/21st century superpower as it did as a unified United States. </p>
<p>In fact, it’s very possible Britain and France may have used the opportunity to turn one or both separate halves of the US into their colonies…either as colonial satellites a la Egypt or colonized outright. </p>
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<p>Actually, if it weren’t for the politicians in Parliament being dismissive politically and socially towards the American colonists, passing bills in a high handed manner like the Stamp Act, their troops committing acts of brutality like the Boston Massacre, and other examples of political hamfistedness, it’s very possible there may have not been an American Revolution in the first place. </p>
<p>I thought we were just betting. I thought we were just predicting what would happen, not saying what should happen.</p>
<p>I am fascinated by this too. I am betting that No wins by a sliver.</p>
<p>Even with all my Scottish blood, I am hoping that the no’s prevail.</p>
<p>John Oliver had a funny piece on the Scottish vote for independence - are we allowed to link to youtube videos?</p>
<p>If so: <a href=“Scottish Independence: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO) - YouTube”>Scottish Independence: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO) - YouTube; </p>
<p>if not, google John Oliver “Last week tonight” Scotland. Very clever!</p>
<p>I think the no vote will prevail. It is one thing to say yes to a pollster, another to actually vote yes. The currency issue (GBP, Euro, or new Scottish currency) alone would be a problem. </p>