<p>I predict “The Comeback Kid” (Hillary Clinton) is on the verge of another comeback. She will win both Texas and Ohio by a larger margin than the politicos could have predicted. As Obama said on his plane, “Remember New Hampshire”. With the momentum having shifted back to her, she will go on to win Pennsylvania. </p>
<p>I’ve been thinking a lot about why I’d not like to see this occur, and everytime, I keep coming back to Bill. I REALLY don’t like the idea of him back in The White House. He’s had his turn, and it’s time for him to step aside. But, he wants back in so badly, he can taste it. </p>
<p>Get ready for The Bill And Hill Show, Reloaded. And they’ll be moving back into 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. with ALL their baggage.</p>
<p>One thing I’ve been wondering, how does CNN, etc. get the numbers for their prediction polls? If it’s from the internet, then I’m guessing that excludes a large majority of the population, particularly hispanics who don’t use the internet or don’t bother to vote on those polls.</p>
<p>And if I’m not mistaken, hispanics in other states like California have been leaning towards Clinton. I don’t know though.</p>
<p>I think the polls are from phone calls, and supposedly the demographics are adjusted to allow for who has land lines, cell phones only, no phones, etc. I wonder how that can be, but that is what the polling professonals and institutes claim that they can do.</p>
<p>I had wondered about that. Most students have cell phones and I know mine tend to put the home phone when filling out forms where they may not want people calling them so I wonder if they fall through the cracks on surveys.</p>
<p>I’m betting Obama by 10-15 in Texas and at least 5 in Ohio. If you look at the polls in other states, he always starts out way behind and starts moving up the closer people come to actual vote-day. Right now he’s ahead in Texas and within the MOE in Ohio with two days to go. I do think Clinton will take RI, much good may it do her. </p>
<p>Sen. Clinton needs to read the writing on the wall and concede graciously so the party can start concentrating on McCain.</p>
<p>I live in Texas and personally only know one Democrat - my sister-in-law.
In the past she’s always been a huge Bill and Hillary supporter. I asked her
whom she would vote for? I was surprised when she said Barack Obama!
When I asked her why, she responded “Bill and Hillary had their time in the White House and now Hillary’s just embarrassing herself.” She added that she had more of a probem with Bill being back in the White House than Hillary.
I asked her “If Hillary had divorced Bill would that have made a difference?”.
She said “Yes.”
For all you pollsters out there, my sister-in-law is 50-something, white,
originally from NJ and educated at Cornell and Harvard :)</p>
<p>My husband is a registered independent and won’t be voting on Tuesday.</p>
<p>My mother-in-law (83 years old) lives across the street from us and is
a registered Republican. She’s a hoot. When we all started talking
about Barack Obama, she sat quietly and finally asked “What school did
he go to?” I guess that’s her main concern about him!</p>
<p>I hope Mike Huckabee does VERY well in Texas. Chuck Norris is still supporting him here in Texas. I’ll bet my mother-in-law will vote for McCain.</p>
<p>Ron Paul is from these parts but he’s really Libertarian. He used to have a following but he lost quite a few Conservatives with his stance on the war.
He did bring 4,000 babies into the world (he mentions this in his local radio ads)LOL</p>
<p>My (not too confident) prediction: Obama wins Texas and Vermont, Hillary wins Ohio and Rhode Island. Obama increases his pledged delegates lead. </p>
<p>Even less confident prediction: Hillary does not drop out, takes the fight all the way to the convention, tries to get the Michigan and Florida delegates seated, loses the nomination, but damages Obama enough to ensure a McCain victory. McCain turns out to be a terrible President, Hillary competes again in 2012 and eventually becomes President. Obama never runs for President again, keeping his promise to Michelle that 2008 was the first and last time he would run.</p>
<p>I think Obama will win Texas big, because of Texas’ combined primary + caucus system. I just got off the phone with my Dad in Texas – he’s almost 83 years old – I asked him whether he voted already in early voting. (Yes). Then I asked him if he planned to caucus on election evening. (Yes). One-third of the Tex. delegates come from the caucuses. </p>
<p>Obama is where he is now because of his ability to pack the caucuses. He did it in Iowa & in Nevada for his early leads – he has swept every single caucus state – so even if the vote is close in the elections in Texas, Obama will prevail in delegates and pick up a significant lead.</p>
<p>I also think he will do better than expected in Ohio, just as he did in New Hampshire – again because he has now proven to be far more effective in GOTV efforts. So I think it will either be a virtual tie or surprise Obama win in Ohio as well. </p>
<p>(I was an Edwards supporter & voted for Edwards in Calif; since Edwards pulled out I am pretty much a neutral observer - but think Tuesday may be the death of the Clinton campaign. If Obama wins Texas & if Clinton fails to have a decisive win in Ohio, I think Clinton will probably pull out of the race for financial reasons; she just can’t compete with Obama’s fundraising. Also, while I am happy to see that Clinton will be the guest on The Daily Show Monday night, I’m not sure how an election-eve appearance on Comedy Central can possibly be interpreted as a sign of strength.)</p>
<p>Obama: will win TX. Republicans will make sure of that. Yesterday, I was at a party where every one seemed to be republican and they are voting for Obama (~ 10).</p>
<p>In my opinion if they want a Republican president they have good shot if Hillary is running - she will energize their base (their foot soldiers). With Obama, he may win in Nov. He will pull in lots of money, and has lots of foot soldiers.</p>
<p>As far as the polls go, this is a good site to see how they work (and how they change.) For Texas, the pollsters seem to rely on a pool of 600/700 live persons who are supposed to be representative of the population:</p>
<p>To make a long story short, the average of the polls indicated a 2.1 advantage for Obama one week ago, it increased to 4.2 a few days ago, dwindled down to 2.1 yesterday, and surged again today to the 2.8 current margin. One should note that the numbers of undecided can swing the result of the polls in the other direction. It is obvious that the results of next Tuesday will completely hinge on the final decision of a very fickle group of voters, and on the ability of the parties to bribe them to go vote. Free transportation anyone? Henry Cisneros might drive you personally to the polling place. Heck, he might buy your lunch to!</p>
<p>I will tell you how the Texas circuses (caucuses) go. I think caucuses are the most ridiculous way of selecting a candidate. I will give first hand report - my first circus book report.</p>
<p>I don’t really understand caucuses. Anyone care to explain in simple terms?</p>
<p>And if you have voting and a caucus how does that work? You effectively get to vote twice?</p>
<p>(I am from England but have lived here 20 years - such a different system over here. This is the 1st time I have really followed the primaries so closely and I am just getting to where I understand it but still don’t quite get the caucuses).</p>
<p>The way I understand is that in circuses less than 1% of voters get to decide who wins. It is also very taxing in terms of time requirements. I was done voting in less than 15 mins. Lets us see how long it takes in circuses.</p>
<p>I find it exceedingly ironic that Texas could be a deciding state for the Democrats. Been getting a lot of phone calls from my good buddies Barack and Hillary.</p>