<p>I agree that being a naval aviator or a POW does not give one the “experience” to be POTUS, however, it is an amazing testament to his honor. I think Clark is foaming partisan nonsense by claiming that Hillary’s years as first lady somehow trump all of McCain’s years in the House and Senate with respect to experience. I hope he tries that on the campaign trail.</p>
<p>ASAP, you’re right on that. I do have to agree that I’d rather see Obama vs. McCain in November.</p>
<p>hmmm… sexism > racism > ageism??? or</p>
<pre><code> racism > sexism > ageism???
</code></pre>
<p>what do you think?</p>
<p>“If Clinton is the nominee, she’ll retire her “experience” theme and turn it into “the candidate for change.””</p>
<p>She can change her stump speech, but she can’t erase the way she’s campaigned already. McCain will have smart people making sure she pays for every “experience” argument she’s ever made. Can you imagine the 3 a.m. phone call commercial recast with McCain?</p>
<p>Re: McCain being vulnerable to attack as a potentially-senile old coot whose brain was fried in the POW camp – that’s treacherous territory for a Democrat to enter. W got away with his underhanded attacks on McCain in 2000, it’s true, but (1) they were low-blow racial attacks, not accusations that his POW status rendered him mentally unfit for the presidency, and (2) just because a Republican got away with it doesn’t mean a Democrat would.</p>
<p>I’m no expert on the 2000 primaries, so if I’m overlooking an element of W’s politicking in SC, fill me in.</p>
<p>McCain can easily deflect the age issue by trotting out his 96 year-old mother.
[McCain’s</a> mother - February 28, 2000](<a href=“http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/time/2000/02/21/mccain.mother.html]McCain’s”>McCain's mother - February 28, 2000)</p>
<p>“just because a Republican got away with it doesn’t mean a Democrat would.”</p>
<p>oh boy, I think maybe you’re wrong, because this discussion now makes my weekend conversation with one of my college Ds make sense. This is the D who’s for Obama (the other one is for Hillary). The Obama D insisted to H and I that McCain was “crazy” due to his being a POW and that we would all be bombed out of existence by Al Qaida if McCain was president. She kept insisting that McCain would make all sorts of bad decisions as a result of having lost his mental faculties while being a POW.</p>
<p>I tried to pin her down (good republican that i am) on how exactly he was crazy, thinking she was talking about actual issues, and it got very confusing and she moved on to other things. But now it looks like (at a college student level at least) there is an argument going around that McCain is mentally unstable as a result of something that happened to him 40 years ago.</p>
<p>So don’t discount who’d throw around such accusations. I’m pretty sure D didn’t get brainwashed by the College Republicans.</p>
<p>"hmmm… sexism > racism > ageism??? or</p>
<p>racism > sexism > ageism???</p>
<p>what do you think?"</p>
<p>JMO - I think it goes sexism>racism>ageism with the American public.</p>
<p>I do think that Obama is better at overcoming the racism problem than McCain is at overcoming the problems of his age, especially when the two are put side-by-side. I think he could beat McCain. I’m not so sure about Clinton, and it’s not only the sexism, but the “Hilary” problem, whatever that means to people.</p>
<p>“Briefly, rumors were spread after he won the S.C.
primary that he had fathered an African American child(horrors!). Just as Dean’s cheerleading after Iowa sunk him, this incidence ruined M. chances.”</p>
<p>I know that, which is why I asked for references to attacks on his military service, particularly valid ones, which would then be comparable to Swift Boating. The rest is old gossip.</p>
<p>“FF, I saw an interview with McCain’s mother on C-Span within the last few weeks. A Barbara Bush clone, older, maybe a tad brighter. And yes, she looked to be in excellent physical condition.”</p>
<p>But his dad died pretty young.</p>
<p>“So don’t discount who’d throw around such accusations.”</p>
<p>I didn’t make any statement about who’d throw around such accusations. I made a statement about who’d be likely to <em>get</em>away<em>with</em>it_ (Post 127). If a Democrat goes on CNN and says, “That old man lost his mind in that Viet Cong tiger cage,” there’s going to be a huge and very ugly uproar about disloyalty to the vets who fought and died for the candidate’s right to say treasonous things about vets. Maybe a Republican could survive that kind of firestorm with his reputation for patriotism intact, but a Democrat? I don’t think so. That’s why I described this line of argument as “treacherous territory for a Democrat.” They may try, but IMHO it would be a huge political risk.</p>
<p>What will you all think if HIllary wins the nomination?</p>
<p>By the way, I know a lot of people would rather have root canal than read the NY Post, but today’s cover was just hilarious.</p>
<p>ITA = In Total Agreement.</p>
<p>Hanna, ok, I understand your comment better. But this discussion did help me clarify what my D was saying. Illuminating.</p>
<p>If Hilary wins the nomination, I think we will have 4 more years of Bush policies under McCain; continued war in Iraq and escalated war in the middle east and perhaps other areas as well, permanent tax cuts for the richest Americans, lack of government regulation in any aspect of business or the environment, continued spending on wars overseas and continued cutbacks on domestic spending for infrastructure such as bridges or levees or protection of our ports at home and other national security protections, no change on the immigration front,
and of course, no change in heath care. No change, basically.</p>
<p>Here are some interesting predictions for today’s primaries found in an article titled “Hillay Clinton Should Have Enough to Extend the Race to April 22” at usaelectionpolls.com:</p>
<p>If the polls are any indication, Hillary Clinton should have a strong day on March 4, 2008 and have enough of an incentive to take this race to Pennsylvania – extending the race to April 22nd at a minimum. So let’s run down the numbers in the most critical of states that vote in our nation’s Second Super Tuesday.</p>
<p>Ohio</p>
<p>Clinton clearly has the advantage here. First of all, the Ohio economy is struggling and among voters who have cited the economy as the most important issue thus far in the election process, she has beaten Barack Obama. So the state plays well into her base of voters who are looking for solutions to a slumping economy. And their basis for wanting Hillary is due in large part to the strong economy the United States had under her husband when he was president.</p>
<p>Clinton is ahead in 7 of the 8 latest Ohio polls. The exception, Zogby, was just on the radio reporting the results of their new Ohio poll stating that Clinton has moved ahead of Obama. The results of that poll has not yet been released on the Zogby.com website so we cannot release it here. But if what he says is accurate, there is a consensus from all 8 pollsters that Clinton will win Ohio. And some pollsters have her winning big. </p>
<p>Clinton Ahead in 7 of 8 Ohio Polls<br>
Pollster Date Clinton Obama
AVERAGE 50% 44%
IPR-UC 2/28-3/2 51 42
Rass 3/2 50 44
PPP 3/1-2 51 42
SUSA 3/1-2 54 44
Qpac 2/27-3/2 49 45
Zogby 2/29-3/2 45 47
Suffolk 3/2 52 40
ARG 2/29-3/1 51 44
Source </p>
<p>Texas </p>
<p>Texas is the toughest of all states to measure because it is anticipated that the hispanic and black turnout in the state will be huge but how much is uncertain. The white vote should be less than 50% in the Democratic primary and the support is split. According to the exit polls, 80% of African Americans have supported Barack Obama thus far in the election. And among hispanics from the Western states, Hillary Clinton has done very well as is shown in the table below. </p>
<p>Hispanic Voters in the West<br>
State Clinton Obama
California 67% 32%
Arizona 55% 41%
New Mexico 62% 36%
Source </p>
<p>Hillary Clinton is relying on a strong turnout from hispanic voters as a hedge against the black vote. Her strategy over the past week that calls into question Obama’s experience to deal with foreign affairs has helped her among men (specifically Latino men). Clinton has also strengthened and solidified her support among women by making the distinction that her health care plan achieves universal coverage while his does not.</p>
<p>Although hispanic voters do not have a candidate in this race, they are still expected to turn out in large numbers. Clinton has the best in hispanic politics on her side and in Texas to bring them out to the polls.</p>
<p>The polls still show a very close race and she may still lose this state. In fact, with the way the delegate distribution rules are, she is expected to lose the total number of delegates regardless of whether she wins the popular vote in the state.</p>
<p>Latest Texas Polls<br>
Pollster Date Clinton Obama
AVERAGE 47% 46%
IADV 3/2 49 44
Rass 3/2 47 48
PPP 3/1-2 50 44
SUSA 3/1-2 48 49
Zogby 2/29-3/2 44 47
Belo 2/27-3/1 46 46
ARG 2/29-3/1 47 47
Mason 2/27-29 45 46
Source </p>
<p>Rhode Island & Vermont </p>
<p>Despite the fact there has not been many polls in these two states, Rhode Island is the only one that Clinton has a chance to win.</p>
<p>The Race Should Extend to April 22</p>
<p>If Clinton does win Ohio as she is expected to do and finishes a close second in Texas (or even wins this state), she can make the argument that she has won every large and diverse state in the union. Although the delegate math would be against her, Pennsylvania is still looming in April 22 and she has every reason to take the race to that date as another must-win state.</p>
<p>She has also proven that once the momentum of the Obama campaign wears off, she starts to perform well in the polls. It looked like Ohio and Texas were lost last week but the time has allowed voters to re-evaluate their options. After Mississippi on March 11, there will be a good six weeks until Pennsylvania votes. If time is all she needs to stop Obama’s momentum, then the six weeks before Pennsylvania should keep her in the running.</p>
<p>Obama and Race </p>
<p>When averaging the exit polls in each of the states that held primaries, we see Clinton is ahead by 16% among white voters and ahead 19% among hispanic voters. </p>
<p>Obama is only ahead due to his strong support among black voters who have thus far given him a 80% to 18% advantage.</p>
<p>Hillary Clinton and her supporters can make this argument in the lead up to Pennsylvania as well as to the super delegates that are likely to decide the nominee in July. </p>
<p>African Americans have historically supported the Democratic candidate in the presidential election by about 90% to 10% so the advantage Obama brings to the presidency pales in comparison to the perception that whites and hispanics won’t bring themselves to vote for a black candidate. </p>
<p>Expectation</p>
<p>Hillary Clinton was supposed to sew this race up by February 5th but now her back is on the wall. But things are not so bad that she needs to get out of the race. She can take it to Pennsylvania.</p>
<p>How accurate were the Super tuesday polls quoted by some of these same posters? ;)</p>
<p>Maybe they will be right this time?</p>
<p>“she can make the argument that she has won every large and diverse state in the union”</p>
<p>Virginia and Illinois are small and/or homogeneous?</p>
<p>“If Hilary wins the nomination, I think we will have 4 more years of Bush policies under McCain”</p>
<p>That’s my guess as well.</p>
<p>I think the bottom line is that no matter how much we may wish (ok, I may wish), she ain’t going anywhere because she knows that Obama can’t score enough delegates and there are too many issues unresolved.</p>
<p>“How accurate were the Super tuesday polls quoted by some of these same posters?”</p>
<p>They were quite accurate in projecting the winner. They were underpredicting margin of victory.</p>
<p>Really?</p>
<p>realclearpolitics.com has the poll data and actual data.</p>
<p>I clicked on Connecticut. It proves simba’s statement not totally accurate.</p>
<p>"Connecticut Democratic Primary
Tuesday, February 5 | Delegates at Stake: 60 </p>
<p>Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Spread
Final Results - - 47.6 50.7 Obama +3.1
RCP Average 01/09 - 02/03 - 42.3 38.3 Clinton +4.0
SurveyUSA 02/02 - 02/03 635 LV 46 48 Obama +2.0
Rasmussen 01/27 - 01/27 899 LV 40 40 Tie
Hartford Courant 01/09 - 01/17 403 LV 41 27 Clinton +14.0"</p>
<p>Look other states.</p>