If you’re in-state, I think you have a pretty good chance. The applicant pool varies each year, so I can’t give you a definite answer. I had around the same SAT/ACT scores as you, but my grades were relatively higher. Make sure you take the subject tests (especially math 2 and a science test if you’re interested in engineering) and work hard your first semester of senior year.
Anyways, UVA was my top (and target) school. I applied into SEAS early action and was deferred. On my deferral letter, they gave me the option to switch into the College of A&S. When regular decision came around, I was accepted into the College of A&S. I then tried to switch back into Engineering and had to wait until everyone made their deposits. A few weeks ago (mid-May), I was able to switch back into engineering. I am not necessarily suggesting this, but I think it helps if you really want to go to UVA. I know a few people from my school (with similar statistics) who applied into SEAS during regular decision but were waitlisted.