I also agree this can happen, but I do think people sometimes overestimate the effect. Basically, they look at what percentage of matriculants were ED, as opposed to what percentage of admits were ED. Typically the percentage of matriculants is much higher, as of course ED admits yield at almost 100% (it seems like around 97% is a good estimate), and very often RD admits yield at far lower percentages.
Rolling admissions, or EA that functions like rolling admissions, I think can sometimes be a more clear case. Like they will sometimes flat out say their standards go up for later applicants, and obviously if a program says that you should believe it.
Sort of.
Part of it is just paying attention to what admissions officers say. Sometimes they explicitly say applying ED does not improve your individual chances. Sometimes they don’t explicitly say quite that, but when they describe how they make ED decisions, including decisions to defer rather than accept or reject, I think it suggests a model along the lines I suggested. I also think it fits with a reasonable model of self-interested college admissions.
In terms of really hard evidence, though . . . we generally don’t have the data on who is being accepted ED and RD respectively to really nail this down. The closest I have ever had access to is the SCOIR data for my S24’s private HS. I do believe that was consistent with my claim, like I didn’t really see any evidence that the ED admits were skewing less qualified in terms of GPA/test combinations than the RD admits at many if any places. I actually played around with the data a little at several colleges that supposedly had a higher ED boost, and that was my conclusion.
But that’s just one HS, and you kinda have to take my word for it, so take it for what it is worth to you.
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Thanks!. Since actual data is hard to come by on this, I have been putting some stock into the fact that college admissions counselors - including those that find ED a bad practice - do recommend students take advantage of the (perceived?) ED bump. I figure they see a broad array of outcomes giving them some insight. I saw your post on another thread about why a college counselor may suggest ED even if it doesn’t give much of a bump - so more food for thought!
“Hooked” to me means an admissions advantage based on “who” the kid is, not what he/she has accomplished (e.g. legacy, child of faculty, child of donor/famous/powerful person, race in the past, etc…) with the exception of athletes, which is an entirely different animal. “Tuba player” in my shorthand is someone who has an unusual skill in one area but otherwise is in the vast sea of average excellent candidates.
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But if the school is lucky enough to have 2 tuba players apply, and one applies ED and is accepted, the school no longer needs a tuba player (even one from Wyoming!) so that one in RD needs to shine in another way or not get in. At a big enough school, 2 tuba players may get in but at a smaller school that also needs a flute player and a chess player and a classics major, the RD spots may have to go to someone else just to balance the class.
I don’t think the schools slice the bologna that thin and I think both tuba players will make it if other factors are equal, but these are the kind of decisions the AOs have to make when all the applicants are qualified.
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In fact, I find the possible discrepancies between what I think and what some college counselors I respect seem to be saying to a lot of kids pretty concerning as well. On the other hand, when push came to shove for my S24 and he decided not to ED2 anywhere, one of those college counselors was quite supportive of his reasoning (which reflected my own).
So I am sticking to my views, but again I don’t mind at all if people want to go with what a respected counselor is telling them instead. Maybe just talk it through with them, though, to make sure you are benefiting from any nuances they may have in mind as well.
I mean, if the kid knows absolutely, positively that school X is their top choice and will forsake all others for it, go for it and potentially save yourself the time on additional apps.
But I’m with @NiceUnparticularMan. Don’t think its a meaningful bump for an unhooked kid and think the value of choice outweighs what little if any bump it gives.
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I hate this - the entire question and rationale.
I think you ED if you find a school you love and can afford - and you want to bind yourself.
You don’t figure out - which can I get into. Why bind yourself where you don’t love.
Take your shot - ED or otherwise. If you strike out, so be it.
If they’re going to admit you RD, they’re going to admit you ED.
And for many schools, finances play a part - if you’re full pay, they love that (need aware schools).