This from UGA. And this was meant to be the first year of the demographic cliff. So either UGA is an anomaly, or fewer kids but are applying to more schools, or kids are moving south at the expense of the northern schools, whose volume will decline. Certainly, anecdotally, in our midwestern state, we’ve seen kids favoring the south.
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Interested to see the answer which of course we need data from other schools for. I think it might still be a general trend of kids moving to the south but in the early data from this year’s applications at our Bay Area school - sample of one -it seems there is a general pickup in applications to out of state flagships. For example UIUC already has more applications this year than the previous two years combined and also increased trends at some others, sometimes including the south but south still not that popular with us (other than a couple of Texas schools that have long been favorites).
Also re first year of demographic cliff - I understand we are more at the gentle slope part of that rather than the cliff part yet.
Wow, did not know that about UIUC.
You may be onto something. My applicant applied to almost exclusively state flagships.
Will be interesting to see the trends as the data comes in.
I don’t see a state breakdown for UGA - just far more OOS than they exist.
Alabama has long had more than 1500 from Illinois, more than 2000 kids from NY/NJ/CT combined, etc. Illiniois brand name may be higher but it doesn’t mean its yield will be high.
Society is moving South in general. Costs, weather, football - you name it. Companies/jobs have moved South.
So yes, I’d expect that trend to continue.
Purdue had a 15% increase in applications last cycle (87K). I’ll be curious what it is this year.
My community also seems to send more and more students to state flagships (in and out of state), but not in the south. UIUC, Michigan, Purdue, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Ohio State are the biggies here, but I’m in Chicagoland.
The families we know who went south chased merit, which seems to be more prevalent with some of the southern flagships.
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To clarify, this is our school’s data - not their overall numbers.
Given an increased rank, I’m sure the school will have more eyeballs.
Having eyeballs and converting them into students are different things of course.
It will be interesting to see if apps are up. Many (at least here) seem to think college admissions are hard, even for the highest level student, and nothing is further from the truth. They are hard when kids apply only to a certain level of school. UIUC has always been well regarded but it seems that its positive perception has increased over the past few years.
Bottom line is - society as a whole is moving South…population tables show this…so it’s natural that kids too will move south.
Not to mention in a tight budget time, the south provides a less expensive education. And not all families have big bucks!!
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In my neck of the woods, kids are moving NORTH. It used to be McGill or Toronto for those so inclined, but I’m seeing interest in the full range of Canadian options.
Urban Northeast. Pretty liberal area. Nobody is jumping up and down to live in an anti-vax, anti-women’s health, “$%^& the immigrants” state. Even the “blueberries” like Austin, Tulsa– liberalish cities in red states. Not as much interest as before. Canada is the new Florida!!!
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Whew. Thanks for the clarification. I was shocked!
Definitely true for some. My kid limited their geographical range precisely for that reason.
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isn’t hitting all places equally, nor at exactly the same time..and some geographies it will barely hit, I believe, because population growth of other types..I know zero about GA, though.
I know I read that the “cliff” started even before the Great Recession in parts of the northeast (upstate NY, I think, was particularly early?) due to overall population changes/moving/# of children per family, etc.
LOTS of things at play.
There are many articles with solid stats saying more kids are going to South, though. In my immediate area, nobody is, but I am in a hyper liberal area, so there is that. One of my kids goes to a very selective private school and they have had 1 kid in like 6 years go to a school in south (they have had like ~8 to MIT, for context, many kids could go anywhere)… LPS isn’t much different. This is why anecdote isn’t data:)
And I think kids are applying to more schools, in general.
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yep, I know more kids at McGill specifically than I do south of Mason-Dixon, by a LOT.
Also, tons of kids going to UK/Ireland, too.
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We have more students in our circle studying in Europe and Canada too.
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I think in general, people stay home.
But those that move - move south.
There’s no denying it overall. The data is very supportive of this.
Will the courts / laws of the last few years change things?
I’m doubtful for the masses - but in most cases, if you grow up in NJ, you’ll end up in NJ.
My college gf grew up in Long Island. Lived in Brooklyn. Now the Island. Her sister moved to Vegas. Now back in Long Island.
But when you look at aggregate data, there’s no denying the shift.
When you look at manufacturing, it’s headed south.
When you look at banking support, it’s heading south.
When you look at who is offering huge tax incentives to businesses, it’s the south.
Statistically, that’s a given.
Will that change in the next few years due to our political divide? Perhaps. But not yet.
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And…the opposite…we have kids avoiding protests, encampments, exclusion zones and general academic disruption at Harvard, Columbia, Penn, and applying to Vandy, Rice and Duke.
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Data don’t lie.
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right, I said anecdotes don’t make data and lots of data say people are moving south. I personally could only name 1 family I know that moved South in last 10 years, but there it is.
Also, this varies by class and lots of other things. The very wealthy / upper class people I know are less likely to live where they grew up I went to a top 20, and nearly everyone ended up in a major metropolis; nobody moved to their little hometown even if they came from $$. The kids from big cities (or near them) didn’t all end up in their own big city, though.
Lots of nuance within national trends, too.
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you clearly don’t work with data much:) Tons of ways to make data disingenuous, misleading or confusing.
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One thing I’ve noticed anecdotally is the kids coming to Alabama or Auburn or TN from the north are fairly conservative. Atlanta kids at these schools are suprised that their northeastern friends lean way further right than t hey do.
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And data doesn’t always tell the story you think it does.
I remember all those “studies” about people moving to various places during covid and various theories why. But many of those analyses were based on phone records- how many canceling their landline service in one place; how many new phone hookups in other places.
You don’t need to be a genius demographer to observe that landline usage skews old. So all these theories about “New York is Dead” and “Nobody wants to live in Boston anymore” were just recording the reality that retirees were moving. In greater numbers, lesser numbers? Takes a while for the actual nuanced understanding to emerge. And whenever an “anomalous” finding popped up (like people moving from Boston to Philadelphia– which didn’t fit the “Boston is dead” scenario, since Philadelphia- while less expensive than Boston- is quite similar in a lot of ways) it got excused as “Philly is MOST DEFINITELY SOUTH when you drive down I-95, therefore our theory holds.”
Gonna be a while before useful information emerges from these Monday morning quarterbacking stories. ‘Cause when a 30 year old moves, there’s no phone hookup to cancel, and no new phone to connect! They keep their cellphone, put the dog in a crate, and rent a U-Haul.
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