I live in the “upper” south (NC).
Anecdotally, my kids’ high school has been pretty consistent with graduates staying in the south and some heading deeper south. The past couple of years have seen a big increase in kids going to the Florida universities, Alabama, Auburn & UTK (Clemson, UGA and UofSC have always been popular). Very few head north for college. Anecdotally, of the few that did from my younger daughter’s high school class (2021), three of them transferred back down south after the first year. In my neighborhood, I’ve seen no less than six homes that have UTK flags out front.
Both my daughters went to college in the south. Oldest went to UNC and to the surprise of no one, there are tons of UNC grads in my city. Younger daughter went to VT and there are also many VT grads here. Our city is a large banking center, so lots of recent grads with finance degrees who didn’t want the NYC lifestyle or COL (or cold weather).
I’ve been here 30 years and lived many of those years in the small-town suburbs of the city (one of which didn’t even allow liquor service in restaurants at the time. It was BYOB in a paper bag), and I’ve never been asked about my religion or church status. We have a large Jewish community center and synagogue in the area (another one was recently built in another location of the city). My kids and I have participated in events at the JCC, my kids have volunteered there, and they have open membership to their pool, fitness facility and summer camps, no matter what religion. Our Catholic diocese’s youth basketball program includes teams from the JCC and the Greek Orthodox church.
My younger daughter’s friend and coworker is a gay male from the north who graduated from UofSC. According to her, he had a great experience there and is happily settled into his life in our southern city. They spend a lot of time together and he has not mentioned to her that he feels in any way targeted because of his sexual orientation. His BF is a senior at another southern university and is actively looking for jobs in our city so he can move here after graduation.
I don’t doubt that there are families who will not choose a southern university because of politics. My sister will not let my nephew apply to southern schools for that reason. Her interpretation of southern universities is that they hand out the Red Hats at orientation.