Or recent grads moving to their first or second job. (My D used PODS for her move to NC).
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CommonApp means students are applying to way more schools than they used to and, for upper middle class kids, colleges further away since theyāre easier to find/research (and potentially afford if scholarships are offered, with full tuition or other high awards less common than 10-15 years ago).
What will matter is yield.
Where do they choose to attend?
Iām tempted to say more upper middle class kids choose to attend a Southern university but moving trends and number of applications doesnāt provide the data needed.
A kid from NJ or IN can now apply to UAlabama, ULouisville, UNM, and CNU in addition to their flagships, private colleges, and instate directionals, when in the past theyād apply to 2-5 universities, most within 100 miles. However when it comes to attendance things havenāt changed as dramatically - though the outer limits seem to be 400 miles. So a student in Ohio could easily choose to attend a university in Kentucky.
Southern universities (ie., Eastern Seaboard, Deep South, Southwest) are popular among upper middle class kids who want football or basketball as big spectator sports, relative ease of access, Greek life, good weather.
That group doesnāt really overlap with kids intending to enroll at HYPSM, NESCAC, Claremonts, 7Sisters, etc.
In addition, in my experience, students with political convictions consider the Deep South unthinkable for various reasons (peroneal or ethical standpoints, their own safety or that of others).
Iāve also heard both sides on Columbia/Barnard, those who feared the encampments and vitriol, and those angry at the settlement w/the WH. Iām curious to see if they got more or fewer apps this year compared to last (which would have to be the worst).
The comparison would be more valid in terms of Big Northern+Midwestern flagships vs. Big Southern flagships: itād be interesting to track 1) increase in applications relative to the number of HS graduates in the state or the region 2) increase in applications from other states 3) yield.
(Grouping them regionally this way would make more sense, since itād be ridiculous to compare, say, Texas and Delaware.)
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On that front, would you say that demographics are noticeable? I.e. are minorities, LGB, and T students more likely to say āno Deep Southā or similar, even if not otherwise applying political criteria?
I can tell you from living in NC that Gen Z and Millennials are moving here in droves. It is a super popular location with them and everybody else. We have rampant development, much of it fancy new apartment complexes for the young professionals.
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As a parent of two kids in that acronym who are choosing to stay in NC I can tell you there are plenty of LGBTQ+ folks here.
The gayest school I have ever seen is Warren Wilson College just outside Asheville which is a very LGBTQ+ friendly city. Warren Wilson is a very small school, but over 50% of students there ID as LGBTQ+ and many stay in Asheville after graduating.
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Portland, Maine is on the list, wow. The population of the ācityā (ha) is only 70,000. So thatās pretty significant to have that high a number of move-ins.
My daughter moved from Portland to Philadelphia because apartment rentals are so much cheaper there. Portland is ridiculous.
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Most likely retirees and not students. Maine was listed as a top state to retire in some article I read. I do think there is an effort to extend the Boston biomedical industry up to Portland and thus attracting younger professionals there. Northeastern Universityās Roux Institute of graduate studies and the gorgeous campus being built in Portland is an example of this.
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I canāt generalize, especially since I canāt assume a studentās sexual orientation, but concern in that regard is either brought up as a general point or a personal one.
For students who are worried, a good question is āhow comfortable are same sex couples holding hands, dancing, or kissing in public? How welcome to do so on campus, off campus?ā+ Reach out to campus clubs. No campus club is a big red flag. For religious kids, is there a house of worship nearby that is LGB/TQ friendly?
The bigger personal concern, as occasionally expressed, is for trans/non binary kids, either as a general principle or personal, like medical care, risks of encountering knee jerk reactions -itās impossible to answer questions such as 'if youāre a tall girl with short hair will some people verbally attack you because they hate trans people and assume anyone who isnāt petite and feminine is trans" (because that, apparently, has happened..). So if theyāre uncomfortable and worried, just cross the college/area out.
NC and VA arenāt considered āSouthā in that respect. Itās almost like the perception of these states is that sweet spot with mostly warm weather, job opportunities, and good chance of meeting peers. Atlantaās the same.
Abortion restrictions function more on an ideological standpoint level: I canāt support a place that would have a barbaric policy in place as to force women to deliver a baby against their will or make them suffer/take risks with their health. I havenāt heard of personal concerns (what would happen to me if this happened?) since Summer 2022 I think??? ā sketchy. That geographical restriction may be parental too. Certainly makes more sense to me than āno university in Michiganā/āin Ohioā (because of football rivalries).
I heard concerns wrt to racial perception in Indiana, Iowa, Missouri - the lower plains sorta. Visits can help (or solidify the negative perception. Letās say hearing āIād never met a Black person beforeā doesnāt help even if the curious student is nice.)
I did notice that compared to 10 years ago Florida is considered iffier. This clearly has not hurt UF and FSU in rankings and Iām sure they have plenty of OOS applicants.
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There are various data points
- trends in OOS applications to colleges in the South vs. Northeast& Midwest
- trends in enrollment
- students who came from OOS and graduate then stay in the state vs. Return to āhomeā region
- young college graduates from other states moving to the South for their first job
They probably donāt give the same picture.
Perhaps not for the issues you care about but In many respects the south is a lot more tolerant than the north.
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Whether theyāre kids or retirees, Iām loving this. Iāll happily send our traffic and CA college apps to other states. Good luck! 
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NC and Virginia (maybe not NOVA as much) are definitely The South. And certainly Atlanta is. I hate it when people try to say, ābut Raleighās really mid-Atlanticā because they donāt want to admit they live in The South.
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I meant that for them itās in the South without what they fear about the South.
Iād say NOVA is culturally closer to DC&MD but yeah, Raleigh isnāt Mid-Atlantic nor is Atlanta. But I was answering wrt the cultural v. geographical understanding that HS students have of broadly-Southern colleges.
Itās up to them to then pursue whether itās really okay for them and thatās what college visits are for.
If they like Smith and Agnes Scott Iām not going to object to the second based on location but may bring up significant differences between Smith and Sweet Briar.
There are so many colleges, as long as they have a good list and arenāt avoiding a place that would rationally work, reasons to cross out possibilities are legit (food, weather, region).
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I was directly asked what the kids I work with and specifically LGBTQ and minority kids tend to say about Southern States and why they want or donāt want to apply there.
What I care about is whether the colleges are affordable, good fits, and can be structured into a 3-tiered admissibility list.
As a guy in MA with relatives in Nova I can report that people up here believe people down there live in the south.
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One of my younger daughterās closest friends (a friend from work who was in her intern and analyst class) is proudly LQBTQ and confidently lives out loud in our city. Iāve asked her and she reports that her friend is happy living here and does not feel discriminated against or politically targeted but like I said above, ours is a blue city and we have a democrat as governor.
I think thatās one of the biggest misconceptions about the South - the assumption about politics. One can find bigoted pockets in every state in the country.
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There are bigoted people everywhere. Absolutely true.
But as my neighbor who recently relocated from Florida up north told me, āOur Young Adult kid just had a medical procedure. Young Adult is biologically Gender A, presents as Gender B. The physician asked if YA would be comfortable with Nurse C in the room or would prefer Nurse D. We could not find a physician who would treat Young Adult AT ALL within a 100 mile radius of our home in Florida, let alone a physician who would understand that the āold modelā of āMale Doctor has female nurse in the examining room to make female patient comfortableā may or may not conform to the patientās wishes.ā
I cannot imagine a scenario in my state where a pharmacist could refuse to fill a prescription based in his or her personal beliefs as long as the prescription was written by a legitimate provider. I cannot image a scenario in my state where a scared young teenager would be refused appropriate medical intervention at an ER after being raped (even if it meant Plan B or some other ājust in caseā intervention). I am sure there are providers in hospitals in my state who would have PERSONAL issues with thatā but as medical professionals they either follow the law in this state, or they find another place to work.
THATāS what folks are worried about. College aged kids donāt need to worry that a health care provider is going to ājudge themā for their personal decisions as long as the law of the land (in this case, the state) protects them. Trans teenagers get access to appropriate medical care like anyone else. Etc.
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Annise Parker was the first openly LGBTQ+ person elected mayor of a major U.S. city (Houston, elected in 2009) and served three terms.
In 2013, she won 57% of the votes.
Houston elected their first female mayor (Kathy Whitmire) 40 years before Boston elected Michelle Wu.
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Absolutely. In cases where specific types of present and future medical care are anticipated, families should definitely do their due diligence in finding not only a supportive collegiate environment but a medical one as well. For other issues that may or may not come up during a studentās 4 years, sometimes itās impossible to know what the standard of care will be until itās needed - and thereās always the option to bring them home for medical care if they are unable to find it in their college town/city/state (which a number of people do end up doing just because they are more comfortable with medical providers they know). This could particularly be in issue in a small college town with limited resources nearby.
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UT Austinās 2024 cycle had a record 73000 apps. Itās 2025 cycle broke the record with 90000+ apps (the majority of increase came from out of state). They just posted in the UT Austin IG that the number of undergrad apps received this cycle almost broke 100,000. Another new record. When you say ānot as much interest as beforeā the number of apps received year after year the past 3 years doesnāt support that.
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