This is my feeling also.
Given this uncertainty, it is not obvious to me that applying ED is a good idea. I would be inclined to apply RD (my vague recollection is that these two schools don’t have EA) and see what offers come in. There is something to be said for having an affordable offer in-hand when you visit a school. It feels very real, and the student knows that they really can be here in September if they just decided to do it. A student does not need to apply anywhere ED.
I would say that they are two different forms of pretty.
I suppose that if you can comfortably afford to be full pay (and noting that history and economics are majors that could lead to a graduate program, and more expense) then either of these two excellent colleges could be a great choice.