On paper all applicants are equal, but those with an established institutional hook have much higher visibility on their Admission. The remaining unhooked ED applicants have roughly 10% equal chance on paper, except those odds have been historically in favor of boys, since there’s been fewer boys than girls applying. Of course, not every unhooked applicant has the same chance, some are much more qualified whilst others satisfy the institutional needs of the university. The unhooked Native American boy with 1600 SAT score who is an orchestra musician from Dakota will have a much higher chance than the unhooked WASP girl from Boston with a 1500 SAT.
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