email sent to applicants today
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My D just got home and saw it! Good luck everyone! So exciting
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Unhooked chances @10%, best of luck
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Are you suggesting all applicants that are unhooked have the same 10% likelihood of acceptance?
If so I believe you are incorrect.
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On paper all applicants are equal, but those with an established institutional hook have much higher visibility on their Admission. The remaining unhooked ED applicants have roughly 10% equal chance on paper, except those odds have been historically in favor of boys, since thereâs been fewer boys than girls applying. Of course, not every unhooked applicant has the same chance, some are much more qualified whilst others satisfy the institutional needs of the university. The unhooked Native American boy with 1600 SAT score who is an orchestra musician from Dakota will have a much higher chance than the unhooked WASP girl from Boston with a 1500 SAT.
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Exactly. Individual unhooked applicantâs likelihood of acceptance is not a predetermined fixed percentage but a function of whatâs in the application.
Applicants shouldnât view this process as random although there is a certain element of luck for those candidates that are entirely qualified. Unfortunately, that highly qualified pool is larger than spots available but far less than a size that would suggest a 10% acceptance rate.
Best evidence of this is in the RD round where you often see students with multiple acceptances to single digit schools. That isnât a random statistical coincidence but evidence that top tier schools are closely reviewing applications and seeking certain qualities and narratives in those they accept.
Good luck to those applying.
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The interesting question is how many of the unhooked applicants are fully qualified to be accepted and make it to the last round of decisions where the list is finalized to address institutional priorities. Past admission officers have been quoted to estimate this to be 80% of the unhooked pool, maybe itâs closer to 50% nowadays, which translates into 20% probability of admission for unhooked ED applicants
No they donât. Their application âpapersâ arenât the same.
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Didnât you just say 10% a few posts ago? Clearly, you donât know nor does anyone else outside the âroom where it happensâ. At any rate, youâll all know in a few days. Good luck to all!
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The 10% is based on simple math, given their most recent ED acceptance rate, calibrated to exclude the hooked acceptances (recruits etc).
The 20% is based on AO reporting that 80% of their applicant pool is qualified to attend, and that number has been reduced to 50% as a guesstimate. 10%/50%~20%
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There are so many reasons why those assumptions and calculations are misguided. Hereâs one:
âAre my chances for admission increased if I apply Early Decision?
Our pool of early applicants tends to include a very high proportion of exceptionally talented students and a higher rate of admission in for Early Decision applicants reflects that phenomenon. However, it does not imply an automatic advantage for all early candidates. We admit Early Decision applicants only when we are confident that we would offer them admission as a Regular Decision applicant.â
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Any indication they will post before the 6PM release time Friday?
By now, 99% if not 100% of their decisions are made. Whether you open the portal at 6pm or later in the night, best of luck!
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Iâd expect the decisions will come pretty close to the announced time and also that itâs possible not everyone will be able to get the portal to load immediately (as happened last year). Good luck!!
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D24 just got an email saying decisions will be online tomorrow at 3pm.
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Our child and their counselor received an email saying decisions will be available 3pm (EST)
Bruno has just been sighted chasing ED applicants
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Good luck to everyone today!
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Back for another round w/ D24. Fingers crossed for sisters at Brown!
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