It’s college admission, not rocket science. You should be able to give a clearcut answer; repeating “it is too complicated” just doesn’t cut it. There are literally millions of applications being processed and the results are fairly clear. I understand that the admission’s doesn’t want to admit that it’s mostly just numbers because I know they spend a lot of time trying to analyze other factors that matter just as well but the evidence is just too obvious for them to hide in the “too complicated” argument. You are right in that it is not 100% but that is always given and there is no point in pointing that out except to preemptively defy any arguments that might lead to such inaccurate conclusion. I think it is pretty evident that no post is saying that other factors do not matter; we’re working with what we’re given. I think it’s more appropriate to say that there is a high (if you can’t accept this, than highER) chance of this applicant being admitted than average