We were at UVA about two weeks ago for a campus visit. During the information session, the asst. dean said that the acceptance rates for out-of-state students is around 25%. I forget what the in-state rate is, I want to say something like 44%. She said that while 2/3 of the students are in-state (required, because it is a state school) and 1/3 are out-of-state, the application distribution is the opposite (ie, 2/3 of applicants are out-of-state).
No way of knowing whether one particular person will be accepted or not because of all the factors that go in to making that decision. But knowing the percentages is always interesting, IMHO.