<p>I’d posted this in the wrong thread by mistake. The Republican field is a mystery to me, too, and normally I’m pretty good a scoping these things out well in advance. To a large degree, three of the Republican candidates each represent one of the critical constituencies that Bush & Rove melded together.</p>
<p>Rudy Giuliani is the jingoistic authoritarian thug, which explains why he even answers what flavor of ice cream he wants at 31 Flavors with the words “9/11.” He gets the 9/11 Neocon vote.</p>
<p>Mike Huckabee is the genial ayahtollah: doesn’t believe in abortion under any circumstances, doesn’t believe in evolution (it’d be nice to have someone with scientific literacy in the White House). He crosses the Club for Growth Republicans up because of some apostasies regarding taxes but the Dominionist wing of the party loves him.</p>
<p>Mitt Romney really doesn’t object to a religious test for the Republican nomination, he just wants it broad enough to include Mormons. He’s fervently done his best to appeal to the Dominionists over the past year while in pursuit of his main goal: making America safe for multi-millionaires. As such, he’s the fave of the Wall Street Republicans.</p>
<p>Fred Thomspon escaped from the experimental late night joke center and should be recaptured shortly after the New Hampshire primary. For those Republicans who surveyed the Giuliani/Romney/McCain field and thought that Thompson was the answer, I want to know what the question was.</p>
<p>And then there’s poor John McCain. Gets buggered by Bush & Rove using unconscionable smears (is anything really unconscionable to Bush or Rove?) in the 2000 primary elections then adopts a position with respect to Bush and the Republican establishment highly reminiscent of that taken by Monica Lewinsky with Bill Clinton, prostituting his character for the sake of his ambition. Not really trusted by much of the Republican establishment, due to McCain-Feingold campaign financing and reasonably sane stance on immigration that drives the hysterics all the way up the wall and half-way across the ceiling. Most likely to inherit Thompson’s support after Thompson drops out but only days before he himself is forced to drop out. My guess is that South Carolina is his last stand. Again.</p>
<p>Ron Paul, the guy in motley and bells. Giving one hell of an audition for the spot on the Libertarian ticket, upon which he previously ran for President in 1988. My guess is that he gets the same spot again but with much better funding. Go Ron, go!!! Time for the other side to have a Nader-style problem of its own.</p>
<p>Tom Tancredo is something of mystery to me. Not that he’s a whack job on the issue of immigration and has been for years but that he hasn’t been able to convert issue into a legion or three of fanatical supporters.</p>
<p>Duncan Hunter has little said about him. For good reason.</p>
<p>Alan Keyes…the Republican answer to the WGA strike, providing unscripted comedy “unreality” shows whenever he can squeeze himself into a venue. Even to Republicans, he’s a caricature, though not a terribly embarrassing one as far as they’re concerned.</p>
<p>Three months ago, I thought Giuliani had it wrapped up and now I’m pretty sure he doesn’t. As one whose degree is in Political Science, I’d like to see a brokered convention but push come to shove I don’t think it’ll happen, in part due to the GOP’s practice of running its primaries as winner-take-all. My guess is that Romney and Huckabee will duke it out for a couple of months, with Giuliani whining to the media, “But what about me?” (Rudy, you get to sit in the corner booth with John Edwards and talk about the structural pressures of the system that push towards two-candidate races and how awful it is to be the #3, odd man out and asphyxiated as all the media attention (not to mention money) is divvied up the top two. The last is interesting…I think Huckabee is pretty short on money now but I don’t think he will be after New Hampshire. Romney can write himself so that’s not a problem. Giuliani has a ton of cash but this evolving campaign isn’t the one he prepped for; see also, prepared to fight the wrong war.</p>