I will be honest, I do not expect to get into any of the reaches at all, but I’d prefer keeping my safety to around 4 and using the rest of my commonapp spots for reaches, for even the 1% that I get into any of them, I’d be happy going to any of them.
If I do not get into any of my reaches including my likely/target UMich - Ann Arbor. I’d go to UM-Dearborn and then transfer sophomore year to Ann Arbor. I most likely will not add any of reaches, especially if they are out of state.
It’s fine to apply to reaches if you have 2 affordable and assured admissions.
But if you are going to go to Dearborn over any other fantastic schools including Michigan State, then you really just need Dearborn and maybe one other.
You don’t need more safeties.
Just ensure you are mentally prepared for rejection - but it’s fine if you choose that strategy because no pain, no gain.
But I have news for you - for the far majority of people, Michigan is a large state flagship no different than other state flagships. So whether you went to Iowa, Kansas, Michigan or others - you’re in most cases likely to have the same life.
Also, since you are looking at med school, there are many many many choices to get you there.
Have you looked at the McCullough Medical Scholars at Alabama? Or the medical scholars at Delaware?
Many schools also have Medically oriented Living Learning communities as well.
Your life shouldn’t be based on Michigan (or reaches) or bust. Find a great four year opportunity for yourself - there are tons and tons out there.
So I think the key for you with your ultimate goal of med school is leveraging the research experience you’ve gained to secure the best research and clinical opportunities in college (while obviously focusing first on getting the best GPA you can). That is the strength of your application and continuing that trajectory can help your medical school application more than simply applying from UMich or any other reach.
So I think if you go into this eyes wide open and are happy with that sort of plan, then that’s perfectly fine.
That being said, having seen a couple cycles now at the offer stage, every year it seems like there are a lot of kids who had one or more very competitive things going for them, but they didn’t get into any reaches, and are disappointed and frustrated they have to go to one of their “safeties”. And of course they theoretically knew they were choosing this as a likely path when they adopted this strategy, but then they say things like they don’t think their work in HS really paid off, they are envious of peers (some of whom they think were less competitive applicants overall) going to other colleges, and so on.
And I am not saying that will be you, but why not at least throw in a few Target colleges which would at least potentially give you some interesting options? You might not even choose them in the end over a Dearborn or Wayne State or so on, but just having the choice could make it feel a lot better whatever choice you make.
In the end this is up to you, but at this point I have seen enough of what happens at the offer stage to think it is a pretty cheap form of insurance to have at least a small handful of interesting, realistic Targets.
I’m not an expert, but many folks on this thread with knowledge have said Michigan is likely to a be a reach, even in-state. This may be even more true if your class rank is lower than what you first thought it was.
Just make sure that you truly think through what is a very possible result - that you go through the gruelling process of applying to roughly 20 reach schools and 3 safeties and only get into your safeties - MSU, Wayne State, and UM-Dearborn. Really think about how you will be feeling at the end of that and whether you would - having received that result - wish that you would have applied to some targets so you’d have some more options. Usually in late spring we see some posts from students who are in that exact situation, and most of the time wish they had added more targets to their list. It’s human nature to be optimistic about long-shots, but know that the likeliest outcome is that none of them will work out. You don’t lose anything but a little bit of your time by applying to some additional schools this fall that are more in the target range. And, if you end up getting into one or more of your reaches - great! But, if you don’t, you may be really happy to have additional choices come spring.
So Michigan State is not a given. Their GPA has gone up yearly the last 4-5 years. But if I was the OP I would talk to the transfer admission at Michigan. I would see if MSU holds an advantage over Michigan - Dearborn or flint. It is NOT a cross campus transfer. It is treated as an external transfer just like any other college. There might be more of an advantage going to MSU. But once there you will probably stay. It’s a great school… Again. Talk to the Michigan admissions before making any rash decisions. They are there to help. I would also pick Wayne over Dearborn. See what the transfer percentages are.
Generally speaking, you would need 2 safeties (Wayne state, Dearborn) and 3-5 targets or likelies (MSU and a couple others). That’s still 12-15 spots for reaches, including UMichigan.